In our second installment …
- In Indiana, Trump-endorsed Rep Jim Banks (R-IN) won his uncontested primary to replace Senator Mike Braun (R-IN). Banks received in excess of 400,000 votes, according to Ballotpedia. On the Democratic side, Valerie McCray (D-IN) defeated Marc Carmichael (D-IN) for the nomination. Of note, the two Democrats totaled in excess of only 160,000 votes, so that suggests the independents will have to lean heavily Democratic for McCray to defeat Banks. Adding to the load is McCray’s lack of elective experience, so the mountain is indeed steep.
- In West Virginia, the May 14th primaries have yielded a Republican nominee of businessman, governor and Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican Jim Justice (R-WV) and a Democratic nominee of former Wheeling, WV, Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV). Here’s Justice’s On The Issues summary:
On The Issues: Jim Justice (R-WV).
Mr Elliott currently lacks an entry in On The Issues. In terms of experience, for five years he worked as a legislative assistant to the late and legendary, or notorious if you prefer, Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), and has since served two terms as Mayor of Wheeling, WV, his hometown, so he’s not an inexperienced naif. However, in the primaries Mr Justice, against competition, drew nearly 107,000 votes, while all of the Democratic entries together drew over 96,000 votes, so there’s a clear imbalance for Elliott to overcome. Add to that Justice’s classification as something like a moderate populist, making it easier for centrist independents to vote for him, and Elliott’s mountain may indeed be steep and tall.
And yet, some question exists in my mind. There is no doubt that Mr. Justice is a chameleon to some extent, as his stance on abortion has migrated from SCOTUS has ruled on this to I stand with the unborn (from his On The Issues page). This changeability, not unknown for itinerant business CEOs for whom success, wealth, and/or power is more important than principle, yes, yes, much like presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Mr. Trump, may concern the West Virginia Republican Party’s voters. They may wonder as to his earnestness. They may even wonder if Mr. Justice would simply be another zombie member of Congress, doing little more than grandstanding, much like Gaetz and Greene, and skipping the hard work.
Or would he even consider changing back to the Democratic Party if it suits a hidden agenda? Guessing at how voters might consider Mr. Justice’s positions and background is not a simple task; it may make more sense to suppose most voters will simply look for the familiar Justice name and vote for it. Or even simply “Republican”. But the implicit questions in his nomination remain enticing, if probably unimportant.
There are no applicable polls, but if and when they appear I expect they’ll show Justice to be heavily favored.
- One of the oddest Senate candidates in West Virginia, energy company executive and former Republican Don Blankenship (D-WV), who was convicted of a misdemeanor in the mismanagement of a coal mine, resulting in the deaths of miners, and ran very odd campaign ads, came in last of the three candidates for the Democratic Senate nomination. However, he still drew 18.3% of the Democratic primary vote, which is not terribly awful, but it does raise questions about the Democrats in West Virginia. Or were the Republicans attempting to promote the weakest opponent by flooding the Democratic primary with votes for Blankenship? Frankly, I don’t really care, as I expect Justice to win.
- The focus remains on West Virginia because Mr. Blankenship is not the only oddity there. Independent Michael Sigmon has qualified for the general election for the West Virginia Senate seat … as well as for Maryland’s 7th Congressional District, Maryland’s open Senate seat, for which he did not qualify, and, of course, the Presidency. If you don’t believe it, feast your eyes.
- Speaking of Maryland and last night’s primary, in a shocker Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) defeated self-funding businessman and member of Congress Rep David Trone (D-MD). In how much self-funding did Mr. Trone indulge? Nearly $62 million. While sometimes I wonder if money buys votes, it can also buy alienation, at least I suspect so, and I wonder if there are any polls measuring whether Trone’s millions spent on his campaign alienated voters, even those who may have voted for him in his successful House runs, of which there have been three.
On The Issues: Larry Hogan (R-MD).
On the Republican side, popular former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) might appear to have easily won the nomination. But, to my eye, it’s a troubling victory for him, as challenger Robin Ficker (R-MD) took 30% of the vote, and another 8 points were divided up among other contenders, suggesting nearly 40% of Republicans in Maryland are dissatisfied with Hogan. Given Hogan’s moderate stances (see right for the On The Issues summary) and stubborn anti-Trump position, this should be unsurprising, leaving him with the task of either convincing the MAGA-heads to vote for him, or the centrist independents. Insofar as Alsobrooks holds an early 10 point polling lead, it may be that Hogan must work harder. She also beat Hogan, in what may be an apples ‘n oranges comparison, in primary vote count, 240,000+ to 147,000+. That must be disturbing for Hogan as well.
- Nebraska held its primary elections yesterday. In the standard Senate primaries, incumbent Senator Fischer (R-
NBNE) easily won, but 20% of primary voters wanted Arron Kowalski, instead, which can be read as the result of the Republican Party’s internal divisions by the uncharitably inclined. There was no Democratic primary, and thus no Democrat is present on the general election ballot, a blunder of a huge magnitude unless they’re backing an independent. Fischer will be faced by independent Dan Osborn and Legal Marijuana Now Party’s Kerry Eddy. Democrats should meditate on the Kansas Democrats’ example of taking back their State, piece by piece. - Nebraska’s special election to replace Senator Sasse (R-
NBNE), who left to take a job offer in the education sector, will feature appointed incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NBNE), who won less than 80% of the primary vote, and unopposed Preston Love Jr (D-NBNE). - The respected Siena College Poll gives Arizona’s Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) a 3 to 4 point lead over Kari Lake (R-AZ), according to FiveThirtyEight.
- The Siena College Poll has Nevada’s incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) even with likely Republican nominee Sam Brown (R-NV), according to FiveThirtyEight. Note, however, that Brown is not necessarily favored by all segments of the Republican Party.
- The Siena College Poll gives Pennsylvania’s incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) a 2 to 5 point lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), according to FiveThirtyEight.
- The Siena College Poll gives Wisconsin’s incumbent Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 7 to 9 point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), according to FiveThirtyEight. This is consonant with an earlier Quinnipiac Poll result.
