Do you remember Rep Buck’s (R-CO) prediction concerning the 118th Congress? Well, OK, I didn’t actually mention it before, so here it is:
What’s more, there’s no reason to assume that the list won’t grow: As the Post’s article added, Buck, whose last day is Friday [today], “warned that more resignations could be coming.” [Maddowblog]
And he was right:
Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., who announced last month he would not run for re-election, will resign from Congress early, he confirmed in a statement Friday. [NBC News]
Even more interesting:
Gallagher’s decision to leave April 19 also means that there will not be a special election to fill his seat. Under Wisconsin state law, vacancies after the second Tuesday in April are filled in the general election, so Gallagher’s replacement will be decided in November and his seat will remain empty until January.
My oh my, I’d call that a message sealed with flaming poo.
So, come April 13th, the Republican House advantage becomes 217-213, as Buck’s resignation becomes effective today for a 218-213 advantage and assuming no other effective events, but there’ll be no chance to recover from Gallagher’s resignation until the 119th Congress.
What is most interesting about this is that we now have three powers in the House, which has been true since the last Inauguration Day, but with the shrinking gap is becoming more and more critical. What are the powers?
- Democratic members, who are currently highly disciplined, even unsettlingly well disciplined.
- Freedom Caucus members, who need only abandon a Republican cause in very small numbers in order to sink it.
- The balance of the Republican caucus, who have the same power as the Freedom Caucus. But do they know it, and are they willing to use it?
It’s getting cold in the Republican camp.
Of course, it’s a bit frustrating that Buck and Gallagher are unwilling to stay in Congress and vote against the nonsense, but the drama of actually resigning, of implicitly notifying the Freedom Caucus, and other extremists, that their behavior is unforgivable, has its own advantages. And if Speaker Johnson (R-LA) can be replaced with a Speaker sympathetic to our foreign policy needs, so much the better.
Will the resignations continue? Point to Buck for predicting someone would resign. But will he be right about more? Can Democrats flip those three Republican seats currently sitting empty while retaining the empty Democratic seat?
Ukraine’s government is watching with fierce attention, I’m sure. So, for that matter, is Putin.
