In the continuing saga of using goat entrails special elections to forecast the results of the general 2024 Elections, the Democrats must be elated after last night’s two special elections, both of which were thought to be close races.
In the high profile, but perhaps less significant, election, former Rep Tom Suozzi (D-NY) defeated Mazi Pilip (R-NY / Conservative Party) 53.9% to 46.1%, a nearly 8 point victory; in the parlance of modern American politics in “purple” districts, this does not qualify as close. Reportedly, Pilip did not embrace Mr. Trump until near the end of the race; whether this was important, negative or positive, is hard to say from here in Minnesota.
In the lower profile race, an election to the state House, and again in New York, Jim Prokopiak (D-NY) defeated Candace Cabanas (R-NY), which was important because that leaves the New York state House in Democratic hands; it’s been bouncing back and forth over the years, from what I read. The interesting part? This “close” race had a margin of 35 points in a district thought to be friendly to conservatives (search on “2024 Special Election 140th Legislative District”).
Of course, much of politics is local, and Mr Suozzi is a very well known and liked politician; I know next to nothing about the other race with Cabanas and Prokopiak, although a 35 point loss in a ‘close race’ does speak volumes. In a loud voice.
Ouch.
But it suggests the Democrat remain positioned to outperform expectations set by pundits hesitant to read the political landscape as anything but traditional. Mr. Trump already has a record of being a drag on his Party, and I see no reason to think that won’t continue.
