Steve Benen seems a little anxious about the behavior of Mr. Trump after his big victory in the New Hampshire GOP Primary:
NBC News noted one of the more ridiculous lines from the Republican’s remarks:
“We won New Hampshire three times now, three. We win it every time, we win the primary, we win the generals,” Trump claimed in his victory speech tonight. Trump has won three Republican primaries in New Hampshire, but he has yet to win a general election there: He lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
The former president has fared well in New Hampshire primaries, and that ought to be enough for him. But it’s clearly not: Trump still wants his followers to believe that he secretly won the state in the 2016 and 2020 general elections — actual vote tallies be damned — based on evidence that exists only in his imagination.
Leading to …
In other words, as the general election phase of the 2024 race begins in earnest, the presumptive GOP nominee is clinging to absurd conspiracy theories about Iowa, New Hampshire, and the 2020 general election. Trump has been warned repeatedly that his election denialism isn’t a winning tactic, especially with national audiences, but the former president apparently can’t quite help himself.
It’s going to be a long year.
Here’s where Benen may have it wrong:
This is not a big victory for Mr. Trump.
Just prior to the New Hampshire primary, WaPo reported
The [Washington Post-Monmouth University] poll finds 52 percent of potential primary voters supporting Trump, while 34 percent are backing Haley.
Which translates to an 18 point projected victory. Other polls show smaller or larger margins.
But, for Mr. Trump and his ego, his 30 point victory in the Iowa primary was not repeated in New Hampshire; in fact, it’s only an 11 point victory. Mr. Trump has had it forced upon him that he is not universally loved by the Republicans and, worse yet, the independents.
And so he’s spinning as only a politico with no respect for truth can spin. He’s accused Governor Sununu (R-NH) of allowing Democrats to vote in the Republican primary, which is untrue; he still claims to have won steadfastly Democratic New Hampshire in the general elections of 2016 and 2020, and New Hampshire’s four electoral votes ended up in his opponent’s column only because of cheating; and etc.
But this may be more than the ego of a mildly demented politico on display. There may be electoral significance, because Haley’s loss, despite the solemn proclamations of disaster by the paid punditry, is less than projected.
The problem is that the pundits are, by and large, making the intellectual error of holding the context static, and it’s anything but static. Mr. Trump’s potential liabilities are far greater than Mz. Haley’s, who, in fact, will have to manufacture her liabilities, as she did with her omission of slavery from her list of reasons for the American Civil War. Mr. Trump has already manufactured his liabilities, and is now waiting to discover if his narcissism, mendacity, and arrogance will result in convictions, fines, and even prison time. By the time Trump reaches Super Tuesday, his reputation, outside of the fanatical base, may be in tatters.
For the independents who live in states with open primaries, the numbers do not have to speak of an overwhelming victory for Mr. Trump, but rather an unexpectedly close race in which Mr. Trump’s persistent errors, small crowds, and unending mendacity may persuade them to consider Mz. Haley. Mr. Trump expressed amazement and fury that Haley didn’t drop out after Tuesday’s result, that she gave what sounded like a victory speech. Mr. Trump, I think, understands better than the pundits the importance of Mr. Trump not showing weakness. Remember such names as Gingrich, Lott, Ryan, Boehner, Cantor, Sessions, “The Hammer”, McCarthy? All Republican politicians who showed weakness. None are still in elective office. They may argue that they left under their own power, but, truth be told, once the cracks appeared in their judgment or their popularity, the RINO hunters came and rubbed them out, metaphorically speaking.
Mr. Trump is well aware that the Republicans, if blood gets in the water, will stop voting for Mr. Trump in preference for a more promising candidate, leaving him to the prosecutors, the MAGA base, and the cruel pens of a punditry that was tricked. His ego and devotion to wealth, power, and prestige will drive him forward, and I think it’s likely that his disposition for wilder and wilder tales will take center stage.
Mr. Trump may cruise to the nomination. But the writers who are trying to finish off Haley for their employers’ bottom lines, because a repeat of 2020’s contest should rivet readers’ attention, have become irritating in their failure to see a real possibility here.
Or we can talk about Rep Phillips’ (D-MN) challenge to President Biden. Biden wins by 46 points in New Hampshire, 66 to 20 in very round numbers, and Biden wasn’t even on the ballot. He won on write-ins, which is not entirely unheard of, as Senator Murkowski (R-Alaska) will testify – but not by 46 points. The only story here is that Phillips is still in the race. He’s made himself into a national joke while screaming that he’s never seen such horrible corruption and, well, evil. All this while the Democrats do exactly what the party of a highly successful, incumbent President usually does – clear the way for a proven quantity.
Phillips is a joke, and should be treated that way.
