WaPo’s Dana Milbank on a recent New Hampshire rally held by Mr. Trump:
There were but 4,500 souls in [a Concord, NH] arena, which has a maximum capacity of 12,000, but Trump told them they “set every record” for attendance.
And
Turnout in the Iowa Republican caucus was only 15 percent, the lowest in years, but one lawmaker Trump called onstage announced that Iowa just voted “record numbers.”
These numbers must trouble Mr. Trump’s strategists, if he has any professional strategists. And then there’s Mr. Trump’s victory in New Hampshire tonight in which he only polled 54.4%, while the contender at his heels, Nikki Haley, polled 43.6% If he were as popular, inside and out of the Republican Party, as he claims, I’d expect better numbers, even if independents, but not registered Democrats, are allowed to vote in the primary of their choice in New Hampshire, but not both.
True, this is better than Mr. Trump in 2016, but, as usual, context is all important. Mr. Trump is now supposedly the all-powerful leader, yet eternal victim, supported by “unnamed validators” from both parties, and general possessor of mystical powers. If, with all that, he can only manage roughly 54% of the primary vote, and cannot fill an arena for a rally, it suggests his base has shrunk considerably.
Biden has his own set of problems, as it appears he’s winning by only 47 points. But Biden’s message, which he needs to polish, should center around economics, Ukraine, and the madness infecting the Republican Party. Just pointing out how the Republicans chronically mismanage the Republic through increased debt and opposing raising taxes should be enough.
I suspect a lot of pundits will predict or call for Trump opponent Haley to drop out. However, Trump has a lot of hurdles ahead of him having to do with legal cases brought on by his unbridled greed, from corporate fraud to sexual assault to disqualification from ballots. In the latter case, the only thing saving Trump is shameful allegiance from state Republican leaders.
So, while I think Haley will drop, I think she’d be wiser to continue her Presidential quest. If Trump’s campaign were to collapse, she’d be perfectly positioned to replace him. None of the other candidates, including Mr. Trump, has her charisma, pitiful as it is. And she has her share of blunders, including her misstatement of the cause of the Civil War and the anchor around her neck of her anti-abortion position.
But if she, and her supporters, want to give her a chance, she’ll have to stay in. Otherwise, it’ll be another Republican governor getting the nod when Trump becomes non-viable.
