So the numbers are in for the 2023 election, and let the goat entrail pulling begin.
- Tate Reeves (R-MS) retains his place in the governor’s mansion of Mississippi, and by about the same margin as in 2019, so it wasn’t too much of a struggle. Even so, Erick Erickson remarked “In Mississippi, Tate Reeves just isn’t that popular and ran a bad campaign. His embrace of the MAGA label probably drove turn out for him more than it alienated people.” A hate-race, apparently: Who did Mississippi voters hate more, the Democrats or Tate Reeves? Or at least distrust.
- In Kentucky, Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) retained his seat with a five point margin, which is far larger than his initial victory in 2019. Steve Benen asserts “But Beshear prevailed anyway, in part thanks to steady and effective leadership over four years, and in part by running on abortion rights.” If true, it must be a galling remark in a state where the GOP has tried to make opposition to abortion rights a rallying cry.
- In Virginia, all the legislative seats were up for grabs, and now Governor Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), noised about as a potential late entrant to the GOP Presidential nominating contest, is facing a Virginia House and Senate controlled by the Democrats, a shocking result that suggests his influence is weak. One of the main themes for both parties was proper management of abortion rights, with Youngkin and the Republicans proposing an abortion ban that started at 15 weeks and calling it reasonable. Apparently, voters didn’t quite buy it.
- And in Ohio, the State Constitutional Amendment #1 protecting abortion rights not only passed, but passed with ease, by 13 points, a staggering failure for the Republicans.
The results from Mississippi are disappointing, but not surprising, for Democrats. But the big lesson to be derived from the other positions and issue is that so long as the GOP clings to its anti-abortion position, its chances of winning swing districts is imperiled. Given that anti-abortion is a dearly held position of many in the Republican Party, it’s unlikely to change.
And, in a way, that’s too bad. I cannot help but wonder if Democrats are asking themselves why independents tend to be repulsed by them, or if they just shrug them off as bigots or ignorant or what have you, with no thought as to how it might be Democrats’ fault. If the Republicans were respectable, they could deliver a blow to the Democrats that would force them to self-evaluate and, hopefully, improve.
But the Republicans, with a few exceptions, are little more than performative puppets that suck the air out of the room.
I expect abortion rights to be the lead issue in 2024, followed by ranked choice voting in select locations, and possibly climate change in third. Trump and his allies have problems with all of these issues.
I expect abortion rights to have some staying power, too, since they involve the lives of expectant mothers.
