Aaron Blake of WaPo comments on a not-unexpected result akin to those of previous run-ups to elections:
New Hampshire on Tuesday became the latest state in which Democrats over-performed in a special election — a trend that has held very steady ever since Roe was overturned last summer.
Democrat Hal Rafter won by 12 points in a state House district that went narrowly for Donald Trump in 2020. The 12-point improvement on the 2020 margin is in line with Democrats’ encouraging continued over-performances in special elections this year; Daily Kos Elections and FiveThirtyEight data on more than two dozen special elections show the party running an average of 7.6 points better than their 2020 margins — margins from a 2020 election that, it bears noting, were already good for Democrats — and double digits better than the normal partisan fundamentals.
New Hampshire wasn’t even the only state in which Democrats lodged a crucial win and an overperformance in a special election Tuesday. They also took back the majority in the Pennsylvania Capitol by defeating a Trump-aligned candidate. That result was expected in a blue-leaning district, but Democrats again beat the fundamentals by around double digits.
To illustrate the depths of Trumpian madness involved, here’s Rafter’s opponnent:
He said supporters of abortion rights desire “blood sacrifices to their god, Molech.” He also had a long history of anti-LGBTQ+ comments.
What it comes to is this: Tell a woman that if her pregnancy should turn deadly, she’ll simply be discarded by society, and you will alienate more than half of them. Substantially more than half of them.
It doesn’t matter how deeply religious you may be, because being deeply religious doesn’t guarantee you’re right, it only impresses the gullible.
But here’s the part Democrats shouldn’t ignore: Without Trump, without the crazed MAGA-heads running for office, winning nomination, and then bursting into fire, the Democrats would actually be in a substantial minority.
They really need to ask themselves if they’ve got a repulsive screwup of their own that’s alienating voters.
