WaPo presents a summary of the debt limit problem, particularly as it applies to the GOP. As I read it, I finally identified what’s been bothering me about discussions of the debt limit and the financial and political repercussions. But, first, a portion of that article summarizing the projected results if President Biden doesn’t accede to Republican demands:
A small group of conservative budget experts is cautioning House Republicans that brinkmanship over the nation’s borrowing limit could lead to economic disaster, warning of severe financial ramifications even as their own party ignores their advice.
In both public and private comments, a handful of GOP budget experts — Brian Riedl, who was an aide to former Ohio Republican senator Rob Portman; Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute; and Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office — have tried to counter the growing argument on the right that the debt ceiling can be breached with only minimal economic impact.
So are the Republicans engaging in motivated reasoning, or, as it’s more commonly known, wishful thinking?
Probably. The Democratic economists who predict disaster if the world loses confidence in the trustworthiness of the United States have a better track record than their Republican counterparts, who’ve been shrilling for decades about debt and deficits and imminent disaster, without confirmation from reality.
But: it’s my guess that there’s a key element missing from the Democratic messaging on this issue, and that is time. That is, the day we start defaulting on the debt is not the day the country falls into ruin. This will, instead, be a gradual process.
But I fear the extremists in the House will celebrate the day the defaults start, because disaster did not befall us.
Not immediately.
They’ll win re-election once, possibly even twice.
But within five years, we’ll see the results predicted by the Democratic economists, or something like them.
I think the Democrats should prepare the public through messaging that incorporates the time element. Not that it has to be accurate; it simply has to inform the public that over X years our financial position will degrade because of the failure of Republicans to raise the debt limit.
And probably, at some point, indicate that if the Republicans are all that excited about debt and deficits, despite the objective evidence, then there’s a simple way to begin attacking that problem:
RAISE TAXES.
It’s simple and virtually risk-free, at least as an element of the public business. It may imperil the seats of certain Republicans who’ve made the mistake of running where there’s a widespread belief that taxes are ruinous, rather than proper investments in the future of the country. But that’s just a consequence of insistent propaganda.
