I think the drama in New York surrounding Rep-elect George Devolder-Santos (R-NY) is building into a wave that Santos will not be able to surf through. The big time pundits such as Steve Benen have been noting Santos’ lack of support by Republicans, some of whom are even making the appropriate noises about Santos resigning.
And part-timers are starting to point at oddities in his FEC reports. This is from justin423 on Daily Kos:
I pulled down all 1.8 million disbursement records from the FEC, loaded it into a database, and then screened it for just transactions between 199.90 and 199.99. Looking at the data, it appears a lot of campaigns spent that amount on zoom, and after removing those transactions, we have confirmation.
only 1 ID shows up with more than 5 transactions with THIRTY-SEVEN transactions for exactly 199.99 each totaling about $7400….
Committee ID…C00721365
Devolder-Santos for Congress…
yeah, those totally look like campaign expenditures…
And then he shows them. Follow the link if you’re interested.
I’m a little puzzled by aspects of the quoted FEC filing. My Arts Editor cum Former Banker suggests money laundering, although just how sending $199.99 to, for example, “DELTA AIRLINES,” will launder money was not clear – unless that’s not the Delta Airlines who we think we knew and, well, let’s just not go on with that. But apparently $200.00 is the point at which the FEC starts paying attention, so there’s something fishy going on.
There’s two potential consequences to what I’m seeing. First, Santos might make it to and participate in the swearing in and seating of new members of Congress, as that happens January 3rd, 2023 – that is, next Tuesday. But how long will he last before he’s shamed out of Congress? Well, it’s not clear that he can be shamed out of Congress. As a Trump supporter, it’s likely that he’ll emulate his political leader by simply ignoring the shameful aspects of his life, and thus not do what an honorable person would do: resign and seek solitude.
But it’s not impossible, or even unlikely, that he’ll be arrested and charged with some election-related crime, and that could result in his resignation. If he still won’t resign, the House might gets its gumption up and expel him, but that takes 2/3 of the membership.
The other consequence is What will this expose? Remember, Santos won his 2022 election in an upset, and it wasn’t even close, with a nearly 9 point victory. Democrats held this seat starting with the 2012 election and won by large margins; prior to that was the redrawing of district lines, rendering comparisons dubious.
Was New York District 3 substantially redrawn after the 2020 election, and the result naturally had Santos winning? If so, why did election watchers still pick his opponent, Robert Zimmerman (D), to win? Or did something happen here? While I recognize there’s a superficial similarity between this speculation and the actions of Republican election deniers, it’s only superficial. I’m curious as to whether evidence, real solid evidence, is found for election fraud of some sort: subversion of election machines, election workers actually engaging in fraud, or some other activity of an illegal nature that gave Santos an illicit victory? I have no interest in lighting my hair on fire while screaming about election fraud with zero evidence.
This second consequence might possibly have nation-wide repercussions. I rate this a 5% change of occurring.
