This is a forgotten composition, with the last draft dated 20 October 2022, which I’ll post as a service to the reader.
A recent release of a nationwide poll by The New York Times and A rated Siena College has stirred up the countryside pundit world of late. Why? It showed a tremendous shift among independent women from favoring Democrats to favoring Republicans. A 32 point shift, to be generally in the ballpark.
In a month.
The impact on the pundits? Depends on who they are. Some ignore it. Some have a panic attack. And some analyze it. That’s what Kerry Eleveld on Daily Kos did, and they found it wanting.
But for today’s purposes, if you compare the Times/Siena poll to other polls fielded around the same time, Oct. 9-12, the survey’s generic ballot R+3 result is an outlier. Here are results from a couple other reputable polls:
- Fox News (Oct. 9-12), RV, 44%-41%, D+3
- Economist/YouGov (Oct. 8-11), 48%-46%, D+2
At the end of the day, this midterm continues to be a competitive race that is likely to hold some surprises that go both ways on Election Day. No single poll at this point disrupts that reality. It’s still possible that independents break one way or the other in the final weeks but, again, we won’t know that until November either.
The lesson here? Even the best polls can be outliers. This can be due to a breakdown in procedures, calculations, or respondents being dishonest, as sometimes MAGA Republicans claim they do. For all we know, a bunch of anti-MAGA women lied to the surveyers in an effort to mislead Republicans.
Yeah, seems unlikely.
But pundits necessarily rely on polls. Erick Erickson is convinced the Republicans are going to clobber the Democrats based on generic Congressional ballot results:
I’ve been talking about this so much on the radio and here that several listeners and readers complained. I’d like to say now I told you so. The wind the Democrats thought was at their back turned out to be an economic hurricane building that will sink their ship of state.
In the Real Clear Politics polling average, there are now only three polls that give Democrats a lead, two of which are still registered voter polls. Five of the remaining six have a GOP lead and one has a tie.
I mistrust those sorts of polls precisely for the same reasons that the Senate’s often controlled by something like 40% of the population, that is, the problem that California and Wyoming each have two Senators, despite the huge difference in population.
And that’s it. The important point here? The right’s belief that the polls for the generic Congressional ballot forecast disaster for the Democrats. No such thing occurred. If New York and Florida had been better organized, we might be seeing an imminent election of Rep Jefferies (D-NY) to the Speaker of the House, rather than the mystery of which Republican will be Speaker, a mystery brought on by their far smaller than forecast margin.
So be wary of generic Congressional ballots, especially when the interpretation confirms the pundit’s desires. Confirmation bias can lead to egg-on-face syndrome.
