Since the last update …
- Senator Murkowski (R) of Alaska has won her race over fellow Republican and Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka; Patricia Chesbro (D) was also part of the cheese grater action, which I characterize in this manner since, after all the conservative chatter about the Senator being on the edge of failure, she coasted to a 7+ point victory over Tshibaka. As I, and a host of pundits, expected, ranked choice voting vastly increases the chances for moderates even in highly polarized environments, as most independents would prefer a steady and predictable legislator like Murkowski over the product of a Party that seems controlled by radicals.
- The Georgia runoff is this Tuesday, which means the pollsters have had a bit of time to run polls. CNN sponsored a poll by C rated[1] SSRS that shows Senator Warnock (R) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) 52% to 48%, with a margin of error of ± 3 points. A rated SurveyUSA gives Warnock a 50% – 47% lead with no margin of error given. A- rated Emerson College Polling gives Warnock a 49% to 47% lead, with a ± 3.2 point margin of error. Place your bet and take your chances.
It’s encouraging to see no conservative pollsters in the mix here, because, while I have not systematically studied their results, my impression is that, as a group, they diverged from the less obviously linked pollsters near the middle of October onwards, and it was the conservative pollsters who seemed to perform worse. For example:
- In New Hampshire, some conservative pollsters gave challenger Don Bolduc (R) a small lead over Senator Hassan (D), while others called it a dead heat. Then pollster Lowell Center gave Hassan a ten point lead, pointedly out of step with everyone else. Hassan’s final margin of victory? 10 points. That’s more comfortable than Murkowski’s victory.
- Pennsylvania’s race between Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) and Dr. Oz Mehmet (R) for an open seat was ultimately a 3+ point win for Fetterman, when various conservative pollsters suggested Oz was pulling ahead. However and notably, the last Fox News poll showed Fetterman up by 3 points.
But how did SurveyUSA do overall? Emerson College? I’m waiting for FiveThirtyEight’s analysis.
What’ll happen in Georgia on Tuesday? I cannot imagine a Senator speaking gibberish like Walker speaks it, so I can only hope Warnock manages to take the seat. I have far more confidence in his grasp of national and international issues than I do with Walker.
1 All ratings continue to be from FiveThirtyEight’s ratings following the 2020 election, calculated in March of 2021.
