This is like a spoonful of medicine, isn’t it? Just don’t drool, eh?
- In a surprising, at least to me, result, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, B/C rated, reports Senator Blumenthal (D) of Connecticut leads challenger Leora Levy (R) by only five points, 49% – 44%. Notable remark from Professor Steven Moore of Wesleyan University: Clearly, the economy is the thing that people care about and it’s the thing they’re noticing. I can’t help but notice that the disruption is a result of the Democrats having to clean up after the Republicans’ blunders in economy management throughout the former President’s single term. Much like they did after both Bush I and Bush II. It should not be a surprise that in addition to Republican incompetence, in the wake of Putin’s War and supply line disruptions caused by the pandemic, inflation is up. I might point out that the job situation is currently excellent, if you’re a worker and not an employer.
- Another surprise for me: The Des Moines Register poll shows Senator Grassley (R) of Iowa, the dude within kissing distance of 90, leads challenger Admiral Franken (ret.) (D), but only by 3 points, 46% – 43%, with a margin of error of ± 3.5 points – technically, a dead heat. By comparison, the poll previous to this, run by A- rated Emerson College last week, gave Senator Grassley a 49% – 38%, 11 point lead. So, does the local rag know more about Iowa than Emerson College? Des Moines Register isn’t even listed on FiveThirtyEight … oh, wait, down here the Des Moines Register says the poll was run by Selzer & Co. Never heard of them. Probably not listed, either … oh, here they are. A+ rated. Sheeeit. Mumble! So what’s going on? Let me speculate:
In mid-late September, a news story surfaced in which Franken was accused of sexual assault way back in March. Des Moines police refused to file charges, calling the accusation unfounded. The Emerson College poll came a few days after that, and perhaps the news, even with Franken’s denial and the backing of the Des Moines police, led some voters to pick Grassley over Franken.
Then the one and only debate between Grassley and Franken was held on October 6th, and the Selzer & Co poll occurred three days later. If Grassley’s performance in the debate was poor, or reminded voters that his positions are not consonant with their positions, then they may have swung back to Franken. Here’s a PolitiFact article fact-checking the debate.
That’s just guesses, though. Iowa goes back on the Could be an upset list.
- The surprises keep coming: Hill Research, B/C rated, performed a survey in Utah recently and found challenger Evan McMullin (I) leading Senator Lee (R), and in two different metrics. First, if measuring without “leaners,” the lead is 46% – 42%. Second, if “leaners” are added to totals, then the lead is 49% – 43%. A B/C rating is not an A+ rating, so this poll must be taken with a medium sized grain of salt, and the numbers are at variance with other recent polls, including some cited below. However, they are congruent with Senator Lee’s begging Utah colleague Senator Romney (R) to endorse him. Much like Iowa, Utah is on the Could be an upset list.
- Erick Erickson is appalled that Senator Warnock of Georgia doesn’t support the name Braves, as in the Major League Baseball team based in Atlanta, claiming the American Indian tribes do support that use of this American Indian associated term. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t, I’ve never heard; I believe they don’t support the “chop” used by fans to be part of the team, so why would they support the use of a name associated with them? But if the tribes do support the use of the name, and the left insists it be changed, then there’s a case to be made for a clear denial of self-agency by the left to the tribes. And that’d be fairly patronizing, no? But, as I said, I don’t know that the tribes have said it’s OK, and I don’t trust Erickson’s word on the matter.
- Enough with the surprises! GOP-aligned Trafalgar gives J. D. Vance (R) a 47.3% – 43.8% lead over Rep Ryan (D) in Ohio, with a margin of error of ± 2.9 points. This is seriously out of step with other polls.
- The Deseret News has published an article on the Utah race between Senator Mike Lee (R), a close Trump ally, and challenger Evan McMullin (I), Democrat-endorsed, which includes this paragraph:
Lee’s internal polling shows him up 18 points, according to his campaign. McMullin’s internal poll shows him ahead by one.
Someone’s in for a shock come November, but I’m not sure who. The last poll published by Deseret News gave Lee a four point lead, but with a large undecided segment, which arguably favors McMullin. Also, if you’re not a linear reader, then go back up above and see the Utah news about a poll by Hill Research.
That last update, already out of date, was a real mouthful.
On an administrative note, getting this blogging platform to retain paragraph breaks in the midst of “ul” lists is problematic, but I still apologize for extra-long, mixed topic paragraphs. Just because it’s the right thing to do.
