Godzilla wipes out Tokyo. Of course. The kaiju have to sign up in advance to do that. In other news:
- In a baffling move, incumbents up for reelection Lankford (R-OK), Rubio (R-FL), and Lee (R-UT) are sponsoring a Senate bill named Protect Drug Innovation Act, which is “To repeal prescription drug price control provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.” As this part of the Inflation Reduction Act is both popular and beneficial to the elderly segment of the electorate, this seems an unnecessary risk on the part of these Senators. But can Schumer perform a bit of aikido on them? He might grant it discussion and a vote, against their expectation, thus gathering material for their and other Senate races to benefit their opponents. That, however, would require confidence in how members of his own caucus would vote.
- Senator Hassan (D) of New Hampshire continues to hold a lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), according to A/B rated Saint Anselm College. They give her double the lead that conservative-leaning Trafalgar has accorded her, a lead of six points, with a margin of error of ± 3.3 points. Notable: In a successful tactic sure to be become more widespread in coming cycles, Democratic groups spent millions of dollars to help secure the nominations of explicitly pro-Trump Republican candidates. These nominees now face a general electorate in which 52% of voters have a strongly unfavorable opinion of the former president. Saint Anselm is premature in this conclusion. The fact you got who you wanted doesn’t guarantee victory. In fact, an extremist is more likely to interfere, post-election, in a destructive manner with the inauguration. And some GOP state parties are entirely controlled by extremists who want little to do with GOP moderates, so ensuring the nomination of a moderate may be more productive. This point seems less applicable to Democrat state parties, as lefty extremists have not seen the success of their far-right counterparts. The domestic cultural history just isn’t there.
- CBS News Polls/YouGov are giving Senator Johnson (R) of Wisconsin a 1 point lead over Lt. Governor Barnes (D), 50% – 49%. Call it a dead heat. Notable: Republicans appear to have a turnout advantage. They are four points more likely than Democrats to say they’re definitely voting this year, and Johnson supporters are ten points more likely than Barnes backers to say they’re very enthusiastic about voting. Enthusiastic to vote for Johnson, who runs around threatening old, stable social net programs while spewing conspiracy rumors. My neighbors to the East are decidedly an odd bunch, but I’m not surprised, given their recent election habits.
- Former President Trump’s Make America Great Again Inc super PAC is finally getting involved in four hot races, Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as Georgia and Arizona. But will these political ads inspire voters to vote for his candidates – or motivate them to vote for the Democrats?
- It occurs to me that candidate Herschel Walker (R) of Georgia is not only endorsed by the former President, but was personally recruited by the former President. Walker failing to beat Senator Warnock (D) would be a tremendous blow to the political prestige of the former President, and given how Walker’s reputation is in tatters, there’s a real chance that Walker will not only lose, but actually be routed, despite Trump’s late efforts. It’s up to Georgia voters to decide if Walker is up to the job of Senator.
- Speaking of Georgia, Emerson College has Senator Warnock (D) up by two points, 48% to 46%, over Herschel Walker (R). Notable, maybe: Since the August Emerson Georgia poll, Warnock’s support increased four points and Walker’s support decreased by two points. If Emerson is as accurate as their A- rating suggests, then that’s significant, but as the gap is less than their margin of error of ± 3 points, and even the best pollsters don’t always get it right, it sounds more like just noise in the signal.
- Alaska Senator Murkowski (R) has gained support from a new super PAC named Country First, created by retiring Representative and member of the January 6th Committee Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). He did threaten to stay in politics, remember. But will word of this support play positively or negatively with the Alaska electorate? Beats me.
- Utah’s Evan McMullin (I) has also gained Country First’s support; again, I don’t know if this is a positive or a negative for the candidate. And Utah has a new poll, again from Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics, but conducted by B rated pollster Dan Jones & Associates (a detail which I’d missed before), showing challenger McMullin (I) losing ground as Senator Lee (R) leads 41% – 37% with a margin of error of ± 3.46 points. Notable: It looks like 8% of those surveyed are looking at other candidates, and, significantly, 12% are undecided. That’s where McMullin’s gold is located, in that group of undecided. He doesn’t have to convince Lee voters to change their minds, which can be difficult. But it’s not good that McMullin lost two points of support relative to Lee. Also notable: [The survey] found 97% of those surveyed say they are likely to vote, including 83% who say they will definitely vote. … According to the poll, Utahns who identified themselves as moderates represent the highest percentages of undecided voters. While McMullin is heading in the wrong direction, he’s not lost yet, and there are still plenty of votes to scoop up, and voters who may be inclined his way. I suppose the question will be whether moderates think McMullin is acceptable, or if he’s too conservative for their taste.
- Iowa finally has a new poll, but it’s bad news for challenger Admiral Mike Franken (D). Emerson College gives Senator Grassley (R), full of mendacity and confusion, a 49% to 38% lead, with a margin of error of ± 3.1%. Do I sound disappointed in my neighbors to the south? I’d like to give them more credit than this. But, as I said, I figured this race would get away from the Democrats.
- A rated Marist Poll gives Colorado Senator Bennet (D) a 48% to 41% lead over challenger Joe O’Dea (R). While this race is not out of reach, O’Dea must be aware of Bennet’s proximity to the magical number of 50%. These numbers are much like previous polls, suggesting O’Dea cannot find traction. It’s a pity, since he appears to be a moderate, and the failure of a moderate may be food for the extremists.
- If you’re interested in tactics, WaPo’s Jennifer Rubin thinks Rep Ryan (D) just gave a master class in a debate with J. D. Vance. The Ohio race may be the nation’s closest Senate race this cycle, although Wisconsin is giving it a run for its money.
- I just noticed FiveThirtyEight is recognizing Center Street PAC as a partisan pollster for the Democratic Party – see the tool tips on the above link. Please discount their polls by at least several points.
Last time I did this, something terrible happened. I forget what.
