Sweet thistles planted, we hope to harvest them by the time the horses come home from the fields, dragging the farmers behind them. In other news:
- Remember Michael Steele’s Pink Wave remark? Here’s some tentative evidence for it, via Kerry Eleveld on Daily Kos: Two Civiqs tracking polls suggest that Republicans and Donald Trump are in a newly precarious position with both independent women and men, but likely for different reasons. Not dispositive, but interesting. Visit the link for more information.
- Filed under SOMEONE WAS LISTENING: Following the Politico report that national Democrats are failing to spend on the close race in North Carolina, the Senate Majority PAC, aligned with Senate Majority Leader Schumer, is now … reserving an additional $4 million in TV ads in the race, according to spending figures shared first with NBC News. I think North Carolina is a prime pickup opportunity in the Senate for the Democrats, not only this cycle, but in 2026, when Senator Tillis’ (R) term comes to an end. Cheri Beasley (D) winning this cycle would certainly give the Democratic candidate in 2026 some needed momentum.
- A CNN Poll gives Arizona Senator Kelly (D) a 51% – 45% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R). CNN gets a B rating from FiveThirtyEight. Margin of error is thought to be ± 4.4 points.
- Another CNN Poll calls the Nevada race of Senator Cortez Masto and challenger Adam Laxalt a dead heat. The actual numbers show Laxalt up by two points, 48% – 46%. Margin of error is thought to be ± 4.7 points. Can Masto re-energize the Hispanic vote?
- An InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia gives Senator Warnock (D) a 47% – 44% lead over scandal-ridden challenger Herschel Walker (R). As the poll has a margin of error of ± 4.2 points, that suggest this race is a dead heat. InsiderAdvantage has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight. But there’s also gossip: Walker Campaign Political Director Taylor Crowe has been fired, reportedly for leaking information to the media. And another poll, by A rated SurveyUSA, gives Senator Warnock a 50% – 38% lead over Walker. This seems seriously out of line with other polls, but SurveyUSA is A rated, so it must be taken seriously. Walker’s campaign is burning, are Republican officials paying attention? Or have they given up?
- Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) continues to lead challenger Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania according to a Monmouth University poll, 48% – 43%. Notable: Few specific reasons emerge in describing reluctance to support the Democrat, but it is worth noting that only one probable Fetterman voter in the poll mentioned health concerns as a reason they might not support him. Fetterman’s misstep at primary time, when he suffered a stroke, is apparently not a big deal.
- Oh, yeah, add California to the list of Senate seats for which no polling apparently exists.
- Colorado Senator Bennet (D) leads challenger Joe O’Dea (R) 50% – 41%, according to B rated Data for Progress. It’s margin of error is ± 3 points, but I have to wonder: … conducted a survey of 1,005 likely voters in Colorado using SMS and web panel respondents. Is this really a reliable survey method? I admit I’m not up on Internet methodology. If it’s accurate, O’Dea is running out of time to persuade independent Bennet voters to change their minds.
- Politico via MSN: Senate Republicans’ campaign arm is pulling millions of dollars in spending from New Hampshire’s race to shore up other candidates across the board, as Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan continues to poll ahead of her challenger. Much like Senators Kelly, Cortez Masto, and Murray, Senator Hassan was considered an opportunity for a Senate seat pickup by Republicans. Apparently, Republican leaders are finding extremist candidate Don Bolduc is not an effective force in New Hampshire. His flip-flopping, however, has been impressive. Too bad the Olympics didn’t make it an Olympic sport, eh?
- Oregon is finally getting a Senate poll, and it’s Emerson College Polling, giving incumbent Senator Wyden (D) a 51% – 32% lead over challenger Jo Rae Perkins (R). Six years ago Wyden won by 23 points, so a 19 point lead is no surprise at all.
- Indiana’s Senate race now has a second poll, and there may be something going on here. ARW Strategies is giving Senator Todd Young (R) only a two point lead over challenger Mayor Thomas McDermott (D), 39% – 37%, in a race for a seat that Young won easily by ten points six years ago. The problem? ARW is unknown to FiveThirtyEight, so it’s difficult to judge whether or not this poll should be taken seriously. ARW thinks Todd will end up winning easily, but if McDermott is this close with four more weeks to go, and a lot of undecideds still available, this may be an upset in the making.
When the sweet thistles were harvested, we buried the link to previous news in a bale of it, completely by accident, and then dug for hours to find it. Here. Brush off the debris first or –
