I wonder if the royal family of Saudi Arabia’s a bit disconcerted:
From unanswered questions about 9/11 & the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, to conspiring w/ Putin to punish the US w/ higher oil prices, the royal Saudi family has never been a trustworthy ally of our nation. It’s time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without their alliance.
— Senator Dick Durbin (@SenatorDurbin) October 6, 2022
Given the military inadequacies of Russia, vividly demonstrated in Putin’s War, I know that, if I were a member of the House of Saud, I’d be wondering if Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), de facto ruler and heir apparent to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, was leading the family into a disaster.
Not that I think any of them are capable of taking MBS out. MBS has proven to be a superior practicioner of royal intrigue, royal politics, and he’s probably got the family firmly under his thumb.
But it still makes him a target. From royal family infighting, to the murder of journalist Jamal Kashoggi of WaPo and the Yemen War, which has been spectacularly unsuccessful, to attempting to excessively profit on the American addiction to fossil fuels in the face of President Biden, he’s made a number of enemies. Having Durbin make explicit that the best weaponry available for import into the kingdom may suddenly be withheld is not only an existential threat, it’s also a blow to MBS’ prestige. And there’s no guarantee that China will come riding to his rescue – or that their weaponry is any better than Russia’s.
Messing with the Biden Administration, which has handled Putin’s War about as well as we could have hoped, is more or less an unforced error that really speaks to his long-term survival odds falling.
I don’t know how poorly King Salman is doing, and if his orders would be followed if he chose to have MBS removed from the position of Crown Prince. The Independent reported he had Alzheimer’s back in 2015, but whether that’s accurate, I don’t know. If he does have Alzheimer’s then he may be nothing more than a figurehead, as rumors suggest.
The future for Saudi Arabia and OPEC is hard to predict.
