Are they changing their minds this much?
- The GOP, dominated by the former President whose willingness to do Russian President Putin’s bidding was obvious and well-known, appears to be ambivalent about President Biden’s willingness to support Ukraine. Remember, much of the GOP’s governing philosophy has been built on Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) notion, no doubt originating from former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), that the denial of a victory for the Democrats was the equivalent of a victory for the Republicans.McConnell himself has made an exception for aid to Ukraine, but as this WaPo story makes clear, there are conservative elements that are so locked into McConnell’s primitive philosophy that they remain willing to back the murderous dictator of Russia. Money quote:
The Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday tweeted — and then hours later deleted — a message that called on Democrats to “end the gift-giving to Ukraine” while featuring a fluttering Russian flag. The tweet also referred to “Ukraine-occupied territories,” appearing to legitimize Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims to annex provinces based on a referendum that the U.S. and allies view as illegal.
The point in this context? Public support for Ukraine is undeniable, and if conservatives are perceived to be out of step with the public, Republican candidates endorsing an anti-Ukraine stance may find that it costs them independents’ votes.
They might even find themselves being asked why they’d rather fight the Russians at Niagara Falls, rather than have the Ukraine Army boot the Russians and Putin out of Ukraine. That’d be uncomfortable.
- Nevada’s Senator Cortez Masto (D) may be the most endangered Democratic Senator in this election cycle, as this NBC News article makes clear. Notable: [Somos PAC President Melissa Morales] said after she spent time canvassing she didn’t hear waffling voters turning to Republicans; instead, they said they’d vote either for Democrats or stay home. Latinos interviewed by NBC News supported that sentiment. As confident as this report may make Republicans in Nevada, and even country-wide, it’s also discouraging for them: Republicans don’t even get consideration as an alternative. Also notable: The new word Latinx, frequently savaged by critics of the elites, who reportedly are trying to supersede the traditional Latinos and Latinas with Latinx, much to the irritation of the Hispanic community, does not appear in this article, neither in quotes nor in prose. Those quoted know better? Disapprove? Or had their verbiage altered post-interviews? That’s unknown. OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, has produced a poll showing challenger Adam Laxalt (R) leading Senator Cortez Masto (D) 45% to 43%, which is within the margin of error of ± 3.6 points.
- B/C rated Meredith College agrees with Civitas: In North Carolina, the race between Budd (R) and Beasley (D) is too close to call. Their latest poll shows Budd up 41.3% to 41%. Notable: There is a great deal of enthusiasm for voting in the 2022 Midterm Elections. Over two-thirds of North Carolinians say they plan on voting before or on Election Day. Democrats and Republicans seem equally energized. Over 83 percent of North Carolinians indicate that they are likely to vote with over 85 percent of Democrats and Republicans indicating a strong likelihood of voting. This is versus 53% turnout in the midterms of 2018. And, contrary to the predictions of the right, One of the issues that is driving the expected high turnout this year is the Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs case … Chiming in is WRAL News/SurveyUSA, the latter A rated, which claims a 43% to 42% lead for the Republican Budd, and a “credibility interval” of 4.4 percentage points. But I have a problem with this poll: The online survey … I’m not sure how easy it is to game an online poll, as I’m out of date on this sort of thing, but it doesn’t sound secure. But the numbers match a number of other surveys.
- Chris Hayes notes that Pennsylvania Senate candidate Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) is under constant attack by Fox News. I suppose when you’re frantic to earn back the favor of mob-boss Trump, you’ll do anything. It did occur to me that Fetterman’s dark charisma may appeal to conservatives, and those that are wavering might actually vote for him, which Fox News is trying to avert. An interesting thought. A Suffolk University poll does show Fetterman with a 46% to 40% lead. Meanwhile, WaPo (you’ll have to search the link) reports Fetterman is beginning to remind voters of Dr. Oz’s dubious practices as a celebrity doctor, including his endorsement of the fake Covid-19 treatment hydrochloroquine. Money quote from Fetterman: … a malicious scam artist. It’s difficult to disagree with that assessment. Is this a knockout blow? Or are you Erick Erickson, convinced Dr. Oz has the lead?
- A Siena College poll suggests Senator Rubio (R) has a seven point lead over challenger Rep Val Demings (D), 48%-41%, with a ± 4.5 point margin of error. Siena is A rated, making that a believable result.
- A rated Fox News Poll’s latest has Senator Warnock (D) of Georgia leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), 46% – 41%. Are hopes of flipping Warnock’s seat fading? If it were a different Republican, probably not. The only thing keeping Walker in the race has been absurd Republican loyalty to the Party’s candidates and Walker’s old University of Georgia glory. Will young Georgia voters follow in their elders’ footsteps? But now an accusation of Walker funding an abortion has surfaced, and an adult son that he’s acknowledged may be very unhappy with him, although of course his account may have been hacked by malicious forces. Walker’s threatening to sue the accuser of him funding an abortion, but if he does, wins the election, but loses the court case, he’ll almost certainly be a one-term Senator, barring amazing work in the Senate. That, in turn, would be exceedingly difficult regardless of who controls the Senate, as the Democrats would ignore his priorities, and the Republicans are dead-set against governing at all. But if he doesn’t sue, he makes his current Senate run even more difficult. In chess, they call this a ‘fork,’ where two pieces are threatened and the choice is really unpleasant. I think Walker is forked.
- I cite polls a lot. Those and the political events that affect people’s lives are about all there is to go on for forecasting elections. And now Richard Hanania doesn’t think polls are any good, either, although he’s more nuanced than that. Darn it. Anyone got a dead goat, complete with intestines?
Old, worn out tires news is here.
