Monthly Archives: September 2022

Rebus:

I’ll just let the Try Channel folks deliver the definition.

They’re rumored to be Lord of the Rings fans.

These are my Arts Editor’s doing, and I’d say they were done very well.

As expected, Alaska Republicans are infuriated at their unexpected loss in the Alaska special election to replace the late Rep Don Young (R), and are blaming it on ranked choice voting (RCV):

One of the most vocal critics has been Palin. On Thursday, she issued a statement saying this week’s ranked-choice results were “not the will of the people” and calling on the other finalist in the recently completed special election, Republican Nick Begich III, to end his campaign ahead of November’s general election in which the candidates will square off again for a two-year term. Palin also called for the state to provide more information on rejected ballots.

Begich on Wednesday issued his own statement portraying Peltola as out-of-step with most Alaskans and Palin as unelectable under the new system. He said the ranked-choice results made clear that in November, a “vote for Sarah Palin is in reality a vote for Mary Peltola.” [WaPo]

Finger-pointing galore – but making sure the Democrat who won, Peltola, is portrayed as being “out of step” with the electorate. It’s an insult to the electorate, really.

See, these Republicans are terrified. The Alaskan electorate has, through the mechanism of RCV, shown itself to be more of a moderate group than an extremist group, even if that’s ignoring the realities of special election voting, which typically feature lower turnout than normal elections^[1]. And that isn’t going to suit the extremists currently controlling the GOP; in a showdown between a politician wielding the magical phrase You are a RINO!^[2] and an RCV-implemented election, the magical phrase wielder will lose, as many have predicted.

The second prong of the trident attack of the Republicans on the electorate has been single-issue voting, and RCV will also have an effect on those voters. See, single-issue voters are apocalyptic voters, voters who believe that if enough of the wrong people are elected, their critical issue, be it abortion, or gun-rights absolutism, or what have you, will go the wrong way and the country will implode.

I’m not kidding.

So if such wrong folks are elected, promulgate policies, and the country doesn’t implode … some of those single issue voters will decide they were wrong. There is no smoking crater. That’s bending the prong of the trident, blunting the Republican appeal for votes.

And the extremists lose their appeal.

The above WaPo article told me something new: Nevada has a proposed constitutional amendment on tbe ballot this November to make RCV the law of the desert the election system for congressional, gubernatorial, state executive official, and state legislative elections. I see this as a looming disaster for Nevada Republicans, and possibly certain Democrats and other parties farther to the left.

The extremists recognize the threat, and they’ve chosen fear as their weapon of choice:

Despite advocates’ claims that ranked-choice voting is better for democracy because it would give voters “more options” on Election Day, such arguments ignore the extremely confusing nature of the process. While speaking with The Federalist, Zack Smith, a Heritage Foundation legal fellow and manager of the Supreme Court and Appellate Advocacy Program in Heritage’s Meese Center, explained the intricacies of ranked-choice voting and how the process oftentimes “obfuscates the candidates and their position” from voters.

Ranked-choice voting can potentially lead to “someone getting elected to office that only has a minuscule amount of support from the electorate,” he said. “If [candidates] have problematic positions, it can make it very easy to hide those [from voters].” [The Federalist]

First, yes, The Federalist Society did supply lists of judges to former President Trump for nomination to the Federal Judiciary, including SCOTUS Associate Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. Second, yes, the Heritage Foundation is a conservative think-tank. So, third, yes, this is conservatives talking to conservatives, not to neutral third party observers and analysts. Epistemic bubble time. They’re running around, hair on fire, flapping their arms in terror, and engaging in desperate mendacity – or just faulty analysis.

Or, in other words, No, RCV is not that complex. Ya got a favorite? Write them down here. Second favorite? Write them down here. Third? Put them there. Put the ballot in the machine. Done.

And, most importantly,

YOU DO NOT LEARN THE POSITIONS OF THE CANDIDATES WHEN YOU’RE MARKING THE BALLOT!

That comes earlier, from candidate materials, debates, gaffes, media reporting, and what have you – that does not change with RCV. Repeat after me, That does not change with RCV.

And it doesn’t hurt to tell the electorate they need to step up their game. In this case, it’s just not much of a step.

Why haven’t Democrats been pushing RCV harder? Well, for one thing, they inevitably have a salting of extremists who don’t like the idea that moderates may have more appeal. RCV does encourage cross-over voting in the secondary positions, doesn’t it? Better a conservative Democrat than an extremist Republican to the moderate Republican voter, for example.

It also gets rid of partisan primaries and caucus systems, both more susceptible to the party zealots; the open primary employed in most RCV electoral systems means anyone who can gather enough signatures gets to join the game. That favors people who’ve gained some fame or notoriety.

But I think the Democrats should push RCV harder. So far, no fundamental defects have emerged. Implementation can be a problem if computers are not available, resulting in several days delay for counting, otherwise it’s no big deal.

And for those of us who value moderates, who value humility, RCV is more likely to deliver the electorate’s honest choice.

¹ For example, in the late Rep Don Young’s (R) last election to this seat, a total of 353,165 votes were cast. In the recent special election to replace Young, which is the first of Alaska RCV voting and thus makes this comparison reminiscent of apples and oranges, 188,582 are listed as having been cast. Does this mean 188,582 voters participated? This should be clarified by Ballotpedia, my source for this information. But, as an afterthought, I would expect moderates to be less likely to show up for a special election than extremists, who, by definition, have more interest in politics.

² RINO is an acronym for Republican In Name Only, an epithet applied by right-wing power-seekers to those power-holders who get in their way. As I’ve said many times over the years, this is the mechanism, beginning probably with former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), and in combination with team politics, aka voting straight ticket no matter what, and single issue voting, that has driven the GOP from a right-centrist party very capable of governance into a far-right collection of power-grasping fourth-raters, such as half-term Governor, for no particular reason, Sarah Palin (R-AK). In other words, yesterday’s wielder of this magical phrase can easily be today’s victim of same, with one of the most famous victims being former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). For some in the Republican Party, extremism is the primary measure of virtue these days, a fatal flaw in those voters.

Demonic pink eyes glowed in the darkness. Marcel offered an ointment for pink-eye, and it was hungrily grabbed from his hand and squirted violently into the monster’s eyes. The monster was … a ladybug.

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2021), despite the date given to the film, is currently in theatrical release. This is your archetypal whimsical film in which documentary film maker Dean meets and documents the life of Marcel, a young, even child, shell creature, perhaps an inch tall. He and his grandmother live in a human house that Dean has rented, and they describe for Dean the life of a shell creature in this house, a creature akin to hermit crabs I’d say. From gathering food, to play, to watching 60 Minutes on the television, they seem have their own version of a full life.

But Marcel’s parents and, indeed, extended family disappeared when the previous human inhabitants had a fight and moved out, inadvertently taking most of the shell family with them. Marcel is devastated, yet firmly in control, caring for his Nanny. Dean represents an opportunity that Marcel doesn’t immediately recognize, but when Dean pre-releases parts of his documentary and attracts unexpected attention, Marcel realizes that perhaps he can search for his family via the Internet.

This leads to celebrity and all that implies – and then even more.

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On has some problems with the audio, or perhaps the theatre we visited did. As we were the only patrons on a Friday afternoon, it wasn’t a problem with other customers. The stop-action and computer-generated affects, however, were nearly faultless to my eye, though, and very appropriate to the subject. Please excuse the joke.

The charm does wear thin after a while, but the film does not extend too far beyond this point, and can be excused. A fun and witty show, it’s worth your time if you need a bit of gentleness in your life.

Recommended.

Inapposite:

inappropriate, not suitable for the situation [Wiktionary]

Hmmmmm. New one on me. Noted in “Trump aggravates the GOP’s national security and crime problem,” Jennifer Rubin, WaPo:

Donald Trump walked right into it. His brain trust stupidly requested a “special master” to review the documents he took from the White House — totally improper since he does not own the documents and his claim of “executive privilege” is inapposite. (Executive privilege raised against part of the executive branch, the Justice Department, makes no sense.)

When it comes to the second choice of Begich voters in Peltola’s victory in Alaska on Wednesday, Aaron Blake of WaPo clarifies that their second choice is actually slightly worse for members of the Alaska Republican Party (ARP) than my interpretation suggested:

Almost as many Begich voters picked Peltola as their second choice (15,445) or didn’t rank one of the two finalists (11,222) as ranked Palin behind Begich (27,042). In other words, only about half of Begich voters were willing to also rank Palin ahead of a Democrat.

Which is very bad news for every extremist candidate fielded by the ARP. If a Democrat or someone else is better than the candidate bearing the ARP banner, the proud and famous candidate, then what about the far-right whose grasp on reality is, at best, dubious?

It remains true that ranked choice voting is a rare bird in American elections, but we can see that there’s a hesitancy, even wariness, to vote extremist when there’s a choice available. And Palin has her own set of unique political attributes – quitter and religious nutcase as well as an extremist, if you’re not in the mood for diplomatic language – to which many voters may have had a negative reaction.

But fighting ranked choice voting is moving up the list of dangerous issues for the current GOP.

Ever see a train with a snowplow attachment? This is sort of the same. Don’t think about that.

• “A-” rated Trafalgar’s latest poll in Wisconsin shows Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) leading incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) 49.4% to 47.1%, which is within the margin of error. That race is tightening up as the Republicans rally to the dude who spews conspiracy theories and dementia while talking about corrupting Social Security with investments in the stock market. Maybe they don’t like their monthly checks?
• Trafalgar has more news, saying that its latest poll shows incumbent Senator Kelly (D) of Arizona has only a 3.3 point lead over incumbent Blake Masters (R), 47.6% – 43.3%. I gotta ask, then, why is Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) Senate Leadership PAC withdrawing a lot of money from that race as if they’re writing it off?
• A temporary slump or is Georgia’s collective mental infirmity going to hold until the elections? A rated Emerson College Polling now has challenger Herschel Walker (D) up by two, 46% – 44%, ahead of incumbent Senator Warnock (D). This despite a history of mendacity on Walker’s part, possibly tied to his mental illness, last manifested yesterday, when he once again claimed to be a member of law enforcement, to the groans of the crowd.
• The race in Pennsylvania continues to be badly broken as Republican candidate for the open Senate seat Dr. Oz Mehmet plays on possible electoral concerns about Democratic candidate’s and Lt. Governor John Fetterman’s stroke in a debate proposal that included “concessions” such as an earpiece for Fetterman so he could be fed answers. While, yes, the offer was an insult, it’s on par with Fetterman’s jibes about Oz’s houses (just how many does he own?) and his lack of familiarity with Pennsylvania. It’s also very true that Fetterman’s stroke is relevant to the election. Just as is Oz’s endorsements of various snake oil cures over the years.
• Another week, another “generic Congressional ballot.” This time, The Wall Street Journal says Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans, 47% to 44% … which is an improvement over earlier measurements. I contrast this with the right’s staple contention that the economy will wreck the Democrats. I see occasional citations, by Republicans, of Democratic consultant James Carville’s famous quip concerning the Clinton 1992 winning Presidential campaign in which he beat an incumbent President, “It’s the economy, stupid.” I’m beginning to think it’s a Republican, if not simply a political, habit to strip all context from everything. Carville’s context was the recession following the Gulf War, and it wasn’t entirely the economy, but disenchantment with President Bush (43) shattering his promise of Read My Lips, No New Taxes. Purist anti-taxation Republicans wouldn’t vote for Bush after that. Today? A pandemic that floored the economy, followed by a big recovery during the Biden Admin, including amazingly low unemployment numbers; the return of jobs from overseas as companies see the dangers of long supply-lines close up and personal; supply line issues slowly being resolved; infrastructure and other legislative wins for the Democrats, showing they can get things done; the Dobbs decision by the conservative wing of SCOTUS, threatening the autonomy of women regardless of political ideology; the January 6th Insurrection, never denounced by most of the Republican Party; extremist Republican election-denier candidates; and a former Republican President who has been caught with his entire head in the cookie jar, while screaming that the Presidency should be returned to him as if it’s a magical incantation, and he may be quite serious about the magic part. The context is both pragmatic and principled, and, while the pragmatic points are, I think, a slight inclination for the Democrats and still have two months to run, the principles are all, or almost all, good for the Democrats. Their blundering over the management of the transgender issue is a festering wound in their side, it’s true. But, in general, it’s been apparent from the moment Speaker Pelosi announced the January 6th bipartisan committee that there was a strong potential that the Red Wave theory of the November elections would manifest as the Republicans weeing in their diapers as committee members Representatives Cheney (R-WY) and Kingzinger (R-IL) kicked their unprincipled and immoral former Party members right in the head, and that has come to fruition, with more to come. The discovery of government documents at Mar-a-Lago is a gift to the Democrats, contaminating the Republican Party as a pack of lawless, power-grubbing fourth-raters. Senator McConnell (R-KY) may be anticipating being Majority Leader in 2023, but, for me, he’d better be praying really, really hard. There’s a potential for the Democrats picking up seven seats in the Senate, and a wild guess of 15 seats in the House, but that’s a best-scenario forecast. There’s plenty of time for both sides to disembowel themselves.

Previous snowdrifts here.

Back last week I mentioned, in one of my Senate campaign updates, that Mary Peltola (D-AK) was leading in the race to replace the late Don Young (R-AK) in the lone Alaskan seat to the House of Representatives, but election officials were waiting for absentee votes to be counted. Recall Alaska is using ranked choice voting (RCV), which I consider favorable to moderates.

The winner has been announced, and it’s Democrat Mary Peltola, says CBS News:

On Wednesday, the Alaska Division of Elections tabulated the final results during a public livestream, which showed Peltoa coming out on top with 51.47% after Begich’s votes were redistributed to his voters’ second choice candidate.

According to election officials in Alaska, 15,445 of Begich’s voters listed Peltola as their second choice while 27,042 put down Palin as their second option. The final tally showed Peltola with 91,206 votes to Palin’s 85,987 votes.

This is the latest in “Democratic overperformance” (they did better than expected) in special elections, and once again refutes the red wave theory, aka Republicans taking back the House and Senate in November, as touted by pundits up until a couple of weeks ago. What does it portend?

No red wave.

While Palin did pick up a majority of the second votes for Begich, who is presumably less extremist than the former Alaska governor known for her extremism, more than 1/3 of his voters chose to go with Peltola, which put her over the top.

To me, that indicates a sizable minority of Republicans do not buy into the long-held extremist proposition that Democrats are evil (“babykillers!”), as Peltola announces on her website that she is pro-choice. They recognize that the threat to the United States is not from Democrats like Peltola, who appears to be fairly middle of the road and focused on Alaskan issues, but from extremists like Palin.

Palin is running again in November for the same seat, as is Begich and Peltola. If Palin loses again, she’ll fade into the Republican extremist woodwork, showing up as a celebrity politician who makes extremist speeches and collects paychecks for doing so. Extremist politics is a grift.

Begich has something of a political background, and may be back.

And the Alaska Republican  Party (ARP)? This loss is a step towards their own political hell of irrelevance, as I said before. If Peltola turns this into a streak, there will be some serious upset in the ARP, and if archetypal moderate Senator Murkowski (R-AK) wins her reelection campaign, as I, and everyone else, expects, the ARP may just fly apart as moderates fight to regain control of a party that is becoming an extremist sandbox, to judge by their actions and not by any special knowledge on my part.

And, finally, if it wasn’t for the Trumpian debacle in Mar-a-Lago, RCV would be the target du jour of the Republican Party. RCV has the potential to be the bane of extremists on both sides of the aisle, so they’ll hate on it.

Until something distracts them.