Daniel Byman notes that the assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri by American remote controlled forces may have have a net operational negative effect:
Yet, al-Zawahiri’s death may actually be good news for al-Qaeda, or, short of a boon to the organization, will likely have little impact given the group’s many existing problems. Al-Zawahiri, in contrast to Bin Laden, was pedantic and had little charisma. Under his watch, the core group had not conducted any spectacular terrorist attacks on the United States and Europe for many years despite a continued rhetorical focus on the United States and Europe. Affiliates tied to the organization, such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), did inspire and perhaps orchestrate attacks, such as the military trainee from Saudi Arabia who killed three American sailors at a U.S. naval base in Florida in December 2019, but the core organization has not done a successful attack on the United States or Europe since the 2005 bombings in London. This may reflect operational weakness or simply a more pragmatic shift toward areas where its affiliates are most focused, but either way it is good news for the United States. [Lawfare]
Which rather makes this look like instructional vengeance. And I’ve been wondering if we’ll be seeing a counterstrike on American forces or politicians. But:
Any new leader might seek to take revenge for Zawahiri and has a strong short-term incentive to support high-profile terrorist attacks on the West as a way of gaining attention, attracting money, inspiring recruits, and proving the new leader’s credentials. Fortunately, as the al-Zawahiri strike shows, the United States maintains an impressive counterterrorism apparatus, working closely with allied intelligence services around the world as well as striking deep into terrorist havens. Al-Zawahiri, after all, is only the latest of many al-Qaeda and ISIS leaders killed or captured in hideouts in Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere. Al-Qaeda’s aspirations remain grand and revolutionary, but its capacity is weak, and the organization risks being marginalized if the new leader cannot energize it.
Which is reassuring. However, the American strike legitimizes violence in the minds of many, especially those sympathetic to the al-Qaeda cause. Whether this was a wise decision in the long-term remains to be seen, of course, even while we acknowledge that Zawahiri was certainly a deadly enemy of the United States.
