People who like prominences. Maybe.
- The Manchin-Schumer suckering of Senator McConnell (R-KY) and the Senate Republicans on the reconciliation bill – here’s Steve Benen’s summary of the incident – may be the gift that keeps on giving. In revenge, the Republicans unexpectedly killed the all-but-passed Honoring Our PACT Act, which is a Veteran’s healthcare bill related to “burn pits,” a military base hazard. This can be expected to excite questions on the campaign trail, even for Republican Senators who voted to pass it on the second try. Now it appears codification of gay marriage at the Federal level may be endangered, according to Senator Collins (R-ME), and that won’t go over well with the gay community, a group that otherwise has been slowly moving towards a more conservative political viewpoint, or with supporters of justice for all Americans. What will be Republicans’ next target that can be turned on them during the campaign?
- In Wisconsin, all serious Democratic candidates except Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes have dropped out of the primary, leaving Barnes as the likely Democratic nominee for Senator Johnson’s (R) seat in the Senate, although it’s worth noting that not all the drop outs are official and the primary, as of this writing, is still scheduled to occur. On the Republican side, Senator Johnson and David Schroeder are in the primary. I should think it’ll be Johnson vs Barnes in the general election, and Johnson will have a hill to climb. But how big a hill?
- Lt Governor Fetterman’s (D) lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in the Pennsylvania race to fill Senator Toomey’s (R) soon-to-be-empty Senate seat is up to 11 points, at 47-36, according to a Fox News poll. Is it safely a Democratic acquisition yet? And when will former President Trump dis-endorse Oz for failing to take a lead? The former President is so desperate to look successful that he might end up endorsing … deep breath … Democrat Fetterman! Not kidding, either.
- Famed statistician Nate Silver thinks New Hampshire incumbent and candidate Senator Hassan (D) has a good chance of winning reelection, but knows that New Hampshire can be quite swingy and hard to predict.
- In North Carolina, local political experts believe the Beasley (D) vs Budd (R) contest to fill a future empty Senate seat currently occupied by Senator Richard Burr (R) to be too close to call. If President Biden manages to repair his national approval rating between now and November, it may be enough to push Beasley over the top, beating Trump-endorsed Budd. I expect Biden to, in fact, recover in the polls with his recent legislative victories, clarified messaging, and inevitable Republican bungling.
- The latest Fox News poll in Georgia gives Senator Warnock (D) a four point lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R), which is within the margin of error. Fox is A-rated by FiveThirtyEight. Notice how Warnock’s lead bounces from a couple of points to ten points, there’s nothing guaranteeing a victory for either nominee.
Tomorrow is the August 2nd primaries, which should answer one or two more questions, mostly in Arizona. Slightly out of date previous amateur analysis is here.
