Trouping ever onwards…
- State Senator Burt Jones (R-GA), now running for Lt. Governor of Georgia, was apparently a fake elector, and now Republican strategists are squirming, as his opponent is using this against him in their contest. Why does this matter in an update on Federal Senate races? Because the Republican strategists worry it may cause collateral damage to other races on Election Day – including the Warnock/Walker contest.
- This Alaska Daily News article claims Alaska Democrats are “supporting” Patricia R. Chesbro, who appears to have little political experience. Earlier reporting had Alaska Democrats endorsing incumbent Senator Murkowski (R). I think it’s still Murkowski’s to win or lose. WaPo reports that a recent Alaska Survey Research poll (FiveThirtyEight rating: B/C) shows Murkowski winning in the new Alaska non-partisan primary top four to a RCV (ranked choice voting) system. Trump-endorsed Tshibaka would lead the first two rounds of the RCV, but in the third, as the two more liberal candidates were eliminated and their voters’ second and third choices were counted, Murkowski wins by several points, just as I suspected would happen with RCV – the extremists end up losing. And then she would be deafened by shrieks of outrage from Tshibaka and Trump. Unknown to FiveThirtyEight pollster Ivan Moore has similar results for Murkowski.
- WaPo has a summary of interviews with anonymous GOP strategists here. It looks as if Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) concerns about candidate quality are justified. I did find it interesting that Senator Grassley (R-IA) did not come up as a potential weak candidate, despite his longevity in the Senate. I suspect that is a swamp too far for the strategists, most of whom don’t appear to realize the January 6th televised hearings are happening, with concomitant collateral damage to Trump allies such as Grassley a good possibility.
- Speaking of, the seventh televised meeting of the House Committee investigating the Jan 6th insurrection will deal more damage to close Trump allies who happen to be running for the Senate, as well as other positions. Just how much is, of course, hard to say.
- In Florida, a Center Street PAC poll shows incumbent Senator Rubio (R) ahead of likely Democratic challenger Rep Val Demings by 5-8 points, depending on how you want to size it up. Jacob Perry of Center Street PAC thinks Rubio could be in trouble. Let me see Demings making progress up that hill and maybe I’ll agree with him, otherwise its Rubio in November, no matter how tired he looks and incoherent he sounds. Man, it’s like Sauron is munching on his soul or something.
- Jennifer Rubin in WaPo expands on the theme of damage to Trump’s Senate allies by noting that the two former Trump supporters who testified yesterday to the House January 6th investigatory committee serve as examples and warnings to Trump supporters nation-wide. But how many Trump supporters are watching the hearings? Not many, I’d guess. Now, if Fox News happens to put them up on the screen without meddling with them…. nyah. I don’t see this as working out.
Earlier updates here.
