Later observations.
- The GOP decides to hold hostage America’s future in the semiconductor business, or at least so it’s portrayed by a left of center blog. Is this a big ol’ club for the Democrats or the Republicans? The Democrats have a more difficult message to convey, but potentially more devastating. I thought about writing a hypothetical thank you letter for the Democrats to Senator McConnell (R-KY), who is the lead hostage-taker, but thought better of it.
- Herschel Walker’s (R-GA, or what state is he from anyways?) campaign in Georgia for incumbent Senator Warnock’s (D-GA) Senate seat was already struggling, so this isn’t going to help matters at all, if these alleged campaign leaks are not fiction: “He’s lied so much that we don’t know what’s true,” the person said, adding that aides have “zero” trust in the candidate. Three people interviewed for this article independently called him a “pathological liar.” [Daily Beast] But will the independents and Republicans of Georgia pay attention to the feet of clay? Meanwhile, a new poll from Data for Progress, a ‘B’ performer in FiveThirtyEight’s book, has Walker up by two points. The previous poll showing Warnock up by ten was by ‘A-‘ performer Quinnipiac University Poll.
- New pollster Center Street PAC, which appears to be a non-partisan, but maybe Republican, anti-extremist organization, has a poll out showing Rep Tim Ryan (D) leading J. D. Vance (R) by 9 points, 43-34, in the race for Ohio’s open Senate seat, to be vacated in January by retiring Senator Portman (R-OH). As Center Street PAC is new, it’s hard to know if this is significant or not. FiveThirtyEight has no listing for them in its slightly-out-of-date ratings of pollsters. I’ll take it with a grain of salt and a chaser of liquid egg, please. Another poll by Impact Research, commissioned by Rep Ryan’s campaign, shows Ryan with a two point lead, or a statistical tie. Once known as ALG Research, Impact gets a B/C rating from FiveThirtyEight. Another shot and some liquid egg, again.
- NeverTrumper conservative Chris Truax recommends the Democrats ignore the overturning of Roe v. Wade, due to the moral ambiguity of abortion in the minds of some citizens. Instead, he suggests that there is a leaning towards banning contraception by the GOP, and that could be the winning issue for the Democrats. There is not enough evidence, yet, to support or refute his view concerning abortion, but early polls suggest refutation. Nevertheless, in some districts contraception may be a better issue, and in some or even most districts these two issues could constitute a 1-2 punch. If the GOP is truly interested in banning contraception, this would be more evidence of their essential failure to understand democracy, as I discussed previously here.
- A Franken-sponsored poll shows the retired Admiral Franken, a Democrat, within five points of incumbent Senator Grassley (R) in Iowa. The same article supplies the information that Grassley’s average margin of victory is 35 points, which makes Franken’s poll results impressive, if accurate. That said, 49% of respondents say they’re voting Grassley, which makes the hill in front of Franken quite steep. The conductor of the poll, Change Research, is unknown to FiveThirtyEight.
Earlier updates can be found here, against my better judgment.
