The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates

The latest updates, taken best with your favorite cartoons…

• SemDem on Daily Kos has a fascinating article on Ukrainian-Americans and the Republican fight to, apparently, alienate this reliable Republican voting bloc. It reminds me that fourth raters can often be identified by how often they step on their dicks – and then don’t admit it.
• Republicans, feeling their oats after SCOTUS overturned Roe v Wade with Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, are now talking about a nation-wide abortion ban. That’s unlikely to go down well with most Americans.
• An early post-Dobbs poll of generic Democrats vs Republicans show the Democrats have flipped the balance to their side of the teeter totter, 48-41. What that means in an already polarized environment is not clear, although it may mean the House will remain under the sway of Democrats. And it’s only one week. Show me four polls with similar results and I might pronounce it as significant.
• Senate candidate J. D. Vance (R-OH) thinks pregnancies, even those from rape, are an inconvenience. In what promises to be a hotly contested race against experienced Rep Tim Ryan (D) for an open Senate seat, will outraged Republican and independent women voters dump him by the side of the road, rather than in Ohio’s soon-to-be-empty Senate seat? And, even more importantly, will those outraged women continue to be outraged when it comes to voting for their Congressional Representative? Down-ballot damage can be a bitch.
• The surprise sixth televised hearing of the January 6th investigatory panel certainly demonstrates a President desperate to retain power, laws, rules, and traditions be damned. But what impact will this have on the various Senate races? Stay tuned.
• In Colorado, the June 28th GOP primary resulted in John O’Dea winning the GOP nomination to face Senator Michael Bennet. For those paying attention, it appears the Colorado GOP has a taste for relatively moderate candidates, rejecting such specimens as indicted elections clerk and candidate for Colorado Secretary of State Tina Peters. Incidentally, Peters then denied that her own primary lost loss, claiming it was rigged. Toss her in the bin with all the other whiners.
• The June 28th primary for the Oklahoma Senate seat held by incumbent James Lankford (R) has resulted in the selection of Lankford (68% of GOP primary voters selected him) by the Republicans and inexperienced Madison Horn (37%) by the Democrats. While a plurality win like Horn’s isn’t usually significant for the easy-going Democrats, Lankford’s majority victory is, perhaps, surprisingly weak; in 2016 he did not even face a primary opponent. But the far-right in Oklahoma is disappointed that he didn’t vote against counting electoral votes on January 6, 2021. That 32% of GOP voters desired someone other than an experienced Senator, possibly because his TrumpScore is only 86.8%, may indicate a fracture in the Oklahoma GOP, but is it great enough to let Horn slip through? I doubt it, but I’ll hold my breath until polls come out.
• In the special election to replace Oklahoma Senator Inhofe (R-OK) for the final four years of his term, Rep Markwayne Mullin attained the primary runoff with 43.7% of the GOP voter ballots, while T. W. Shannon, with a less impressive 17.5%, will be in the other slot. As noted before, former Rep Kendra Horn (D-OK) will meet the winner of the runoff, who I expect will be Mullin. Does Mullin’s plurality indicate weakness? Does his attempts to attract former President Trump’s attention bring doubt upon his campaign, now that Trump appears to be in serious legal trouble? Probably not. But it’s worth keeping half an eye on this contest.
• Former EPA Administrator for President Trump, and stricken with multiple scandals during his tenure, Scott Pruitt (R-OK) came in fifth in the primary for the special election to replace Senator Inhofe (R-OK). This is more noteworthy than it sounds, as Pruitt tried to campaign on the scandals to his advantage, and failed. At least portions of the GOP have little patience for naked power-seekers. Sorry about the visual.
• In Georgia a new Quinnipiac University Poll shows incumbent Senator Warnock (D) with a ten point lead (±2.5 points) over challenger and former NFL star Herschel Walker (R). This is particularly of interest: In today’s poll, Democrats (97 – 2 percent) and independents (62 – 33 percent) back Warnock, while Republicans (93 – 7 percent) back Walker. First, independents are leaning to the Democrats, which may explain Georgia resident and leading right-wing pundit Erick Erickson’s panicked public posts over the last couple of days. Second, the Republicans are strongly in Walker’s corner, which suggests they’d rather have power than a reasonable representative. I consider Warnock to be far more reasonable than Walker, who gets kudos for being forthright concerning his mental illness – but that’s not an excuse for speaking gibberish concerning the Uvalde tragedy, but more a reason to sit out the election, or vote for Senator and Pastor Warnock.
• With a slogan unfortunately reminiscent of at least one slogan of failed and disgraced former President Trump, “the only Republican who can defeat Tammy Duckworth in the fall,” Kathy Salvi won the Republican primary in Illinois, and the right to challenge incumbent Senator Duckworth (D). Potentially hampering her effort is the fact that her plurality victory consists of winning 30.5% of the GOP primary vote. If the losers’ supporters are embittered, as sometimes happens in GOP contests of late, then Salvi will have a very difficult hill to climb.
• Krystie Matthews (D-SC), a member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, won the right to challenge incumbent Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), emerging from a primary runoff in which she had to come from behind. No polls seem to be available just yet, but it’s South Carolina, so I expect Senator Scott to win another term.

Previous update here.