Monthly Archives: May 2022

Pyrogeography:

Pyrogeography is the study of the past, present, and projected distribution of wildfire. Wildland fire occurs under certain conditions of climate, vegetation, topography, and sources of ignition, such that it has its own biogeography, or pattern in space and time. [Wikipedia]

Pyrogeographer is used in an unlinkable article in Discover (May/June 2022), and it was just too cool to pass up.

Horizontal gene transfer refers to the physical movement of genes from one organism to another. I had always assumed it was a unicellular trait, because … well, because. So this surprised me:

Many snakes make meals of frogs, but some appear to be transferring their DNA into the amphibians as well. A genetic analysis suggests that parasites shared between snakes and frogs may facilitate the movement of genetic material from one species to another.

The “horizontal” transfer of DNA between species was long considered a rare event that took place only between microbes, but there is growing evidence that the process has been going on all over the tree of life. [“Frogs have acquired DNA from snakes with the help of parasites,” Jake Buehler, NewScientist (30 April 2022, paywall)]

So parasites not only suck on your resources, but they gift you with genes you may not want.

Nifty.

Here’s some lovely irises, just popped today:

“What would be completely unexpected, yet organic, at this point?” “I can’t think of a thing.”

Late Night (2019) is a fairly conventional take on the stresses of putting on a talk show, ranging from the writers responsible for the jokes, right to the pinnacle – the talking head. It sails through the expected elements: stale jokes, lack of diversity, complacency and jealousy of position, and what happens when the show’s personnel are suddenly slated for replacement.

Sprightly, it has some laughs and some good acting, and is … unmemorable. For me. I suspect other audiences might love it.

But not me.

I noticed yesterday, via an Erick Erickson’s post, a prospective split in the GOP, but didn’t have time to address it because the lawn needed mowing. This involves the Georgia GOP primary battle for nomination to the governor’s seat involving incumbent Brian Kemp and former Senator David Perdue (R-GA), who was defeated in his reelection bid by now-Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA). Because Governor Kemp didn’t arbitrarily, and no doubt futilely, refuse to validate the 2020 election results in Georgia, Trump is determined to run Kemp out of the GOP, using the vehicle of the aforementioned Perdue. But:

I’ve confirmed with both sides, Vice President Mike Pence is himself formally endorsing Brian Kemp and will be in Georgia the day before the May 24th primary election. on May 23, Pence will campaign in Georgia for Kemp. …

With Pence for Kemp, it puts him directly at odds with President Trump. We probably will not see Perdue attacking Pence for the endorsement, though perhaps Trump will say something.

Via Professor Richardson, I learn from Greg Bluestein of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution of others on the Pence side of the split:

But many of Trump’s fiercest Republican critics have rallied to Kemp’s side. That includes former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who plans to soon stump for Kemp in Georgia, and former President George W. Bush, who recently donated to his campaign.​

Both of whom qualify as old-line Republicans, but while the endorsement of a former President usually carries some weight, Bush is little more than a footnote to most Republican voters these days. It’s not just his Administration ending on the low note of the Great Recession, but his failure to convert into yet another MAGA-ite.

Erickson notes Kemp’s commanding lead in the primary:

Kemp has never been behind in the polls. Initial polling in the race had Kemp under 50%, but for the last three months, every public and all the private polling I’m aware of has had Kemp above 50%, meaning he will escape a runoff. Likewise, President Trump has largely downplayed the race and set expectations for a Kemp victory.

And that last line is a doozy. This is Trump’s conception of loyalty, noted time after time by many observers, and it’s not surprising, given Perdue’s debate performance in his Senatorial reelection bid in 2020 – staring vacantly while Ossoff verbally dumped his sins on his head. A former businessman, he doesn’t really understand being a politician, and shouldn’t have permitted Trump to persuade him to challenge Kemp. Perdue supposedly had prestige as a former Senator, even if he lost to political novice Ossoff, but his utter loyalty to Trump was the key for Trump to endorse him. That uncompromising loyalty marks the amateur, the unwillingness to think for oneself. Perdue never had a chance.

But Bluestein’s comment concerning MAGAites in Georgia reminded me of something important:

The event announced Friday illustrates a growing proxy fight in Georgia between establishment forces backing Kemp and the Trump loyalists who want to remake the state Republican Party in the former president’s mold.

This is really the issue that distinguishes the Trump cult from the traditional American parties and politics, isn’t it? Rather than rallying to a collection of principles and goals, the Trump base rallies to … Trump. Whoever he is, whatever he does, that’s where the loyalties lay.

If he leads them over the cliff of treason, as on January 6, 2021, then that’s where they go. They have no external guideposts, not even their religious beliefs, to stop most of them.

This situation really discourages fruitful discussion, doesn’t it? I mean, you can’t really talk with someone about conservative principles and fossil fuels when it’s all about Trump, and all he does it make up fake statistics about cancer and wind power. We saw him in office, as is common with all mendacious politicians whose focus is gaining and holding power, and his positions shifting and uttering supposed plans – it’s Infrastructure Week again! – as he perceived them to be best oriented to attract his base.

And without discussion, without honest criticism – or praise, are you listening to me you professional pundits? – how is anything supposed to improve?

But that’s the autocratic form of government, isn’t it? All about some self-centered person for whom the metric is How much attention am I getting? rather than Is the nation improving? And while admitting that the second question is far harder to answer than the first, that doesn’t make it invalid. It only makes it far more challenging – and interesting.

Bluestein’s description is an insight into the importance that Kemp – himself saddled with a dubious ethics illustrated by his failure to recuse or even resign as Secretary of State for Georgia when he chose to run for the governor’s seat in 2018, thus tainting the voting system – win, and win with a commanding margin, in the primary over Perdue.

And then we’ll see how Stacey Abrams, former member of the Georgia Legislature, does in the gubernatorial race rematch.

The first picture of the heart of the Milky Way, known as Sagittarius *, from the Event Horizon Telescope:

Credit: EHT Collaboration

OK, so it’s a trifle blurry, but what it represents is very cool: A black hole that is the mass of 4 million stars the size of our Sun. More information here.

Remember those tulips from a couple of days ago? They’ve developed:

And some cousins have popped up:

Steve Benen provides a useful summation of what I’ve been predicting over the years, continuing to occur:

Nearly a decade later, however, Toomey is no longer seen as a conservative stalwart. On the contrary, in some GOP circles, he’s actually a boogeyman. The Hill reported the other day on Donald Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania, where the former president tried to generate support for celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, who’s running to succeed Toomey.

Trump … took aim at former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick, Oz’s primary challenger in the Senate race, saying he is similar to Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who is retiring from the upper chamber after his current term and was one of the seven Republican senators to vote to convict Trump last year.

…

To drive home the point, consider how much company Toomey has. The Texas Tribune reports today, for example, that the Bush name has lost its political clout in the Lone Star State as the GOP moves further and further to the right. In North Carolina, Pat McCrory was a deeply conservative governor, who’s now seen as a “RINO” Senate candidate.

A decade ago, Mitt Romney was his party’s “severely conservative“ presidential nominee, and now he’s persona non grata for much of the right. Even John McCain’s name in Arizona is now “invoked as an insult“ by conservative Republicans.

And Romney’s partner in that race, Rep Paul Ryan (R-WI), hard right zealot, future Speaker of the House, and boy wonder of wonkhood (since expelled for not being actually wonky enough), has been virtually run out of the Party. If he has any influence, I have not heard of it. He joins a horde of Republicans who’ve left the Party, ostensibly over Trump, but really over what he represents. The Party has been sprinting right, as I’ve been expecting.

But I don’t like Benen’s conclusion:

To fully appreciate Trump’s impact on GOP politics, look no further than the conservative Republicans who’ve been deemed too liberal by the party’s base.

The key question here is to ask, Could only Trump have pushed the Party that far right?

I contend the answer is No.

The Republican Party combination of toxic team politics, in which straight ticket voting is de rigeur, single issue voting, the disappearance of the Party gatekeepers, and the emphasis on winning elections, while scanting the question of competent governance and moderate politics, made the soil fertile for anyone with the wit to realize the party was vulnerable.

But then add in the catalyst of religious zealotry, and the poison of all the previously mentioned features is augmented: God wants you to to vote only Republican, God hates abortion / gun control / business regs / taxes, God favors extremists over those damn compromising moderates – the last seen long ago in the phrase,

Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in pursuit of justice is no virtue.

Memorable, but a dark omen of the future for the Republicans, as this was written for Senator Goldwater (R-AZ) sometime in the 1960s. Returning to my point, Trump reportedly didn’t even want to win, but use the campaign to suck money out of the conservative movement.

The Get Out Of Jail Free card of the Biblical figure of Cyrus, to which anyone who caught the imagination of the evangelical base could be connected, simply made Trump, who allegedly was fabulously rich, which is an important point for the prosperity church segment of the evangelicals, the focal point of a movement that needed a believable leader and had been discarding potential leaders for decades, names such as Falwell, Gingrich, Romney, Ryan, Bush, Allen West (R-TX) – all had a flaw, whether they were too honorable to break the rules and bring the evangelicals their desperately desired power, or too inept at communications, or were the wrong sect, or the wrong color, or couldn’t be extreme enough.

Trump, despite being a master of communication with his base, may be slipping. His crowds are reportedly shrinking, and sometimes he gets booed.

So Benen may blame Trump, but I blame a Party that self-destructed over a couple of decades, following Gingrich’s advice to put victory at the polls over everything else, be it ideological rigor or electoral cheating. Trump was just the lucky guy – if being the most disgraced President in US history can be considered to be lucky – to benefit from Gingrich’s cursed advice.

The question that leaps to mind is whether there’s a politician waiting in the wings who can outdo Trump. Names such as DeSantis, Hawley, Cruz, and a number of others come to mind, but they all have flaws. Meanwhile, the younger generations seem to view the evangelicals and Republicans with great doubt, although the Democrats are not without their own potentially fatal missteps.

Where will it end?

A technical artifact or an example of pareidolia:

A friend sent it to me, and it’s from NASA’s raw image collection:

This image was taken by Mast Camera (Mastcam) onboard NASA’s Mars rover Curiosity on Sol 3466 (2022-05-07 07:58:16 UTC).

Fun! How long would it take to get the helicopter Ingenuity there to fly down that hole?

It appears Bitcoin is struggling a bit since the last time I checked in:

1 Year chart of Bitcoin value in US$ from CoinMarketCap.

Yeah, that’s down more than 50% from the year’s high. That cannot be comforting to the speculators who went big on Bitcon Bitcoin a few months ago. Michelle Singletary, a financial columnist for WaPo, is not a fan of holding large amounts of 401K money in cryptocurrencies.

But perhaps the best part of Singletary’s column was the reader “ArlingMay” who wrote, in part:

Call them “cryptoassets” or “cryptobets” but please don’t’ [sic] call them currencies. That label misleads the gullible.

The reader remarks were dominated by cryptocurrency haters, but I did like ArlingMay’s thought. I’m a skeptic myself, but I keep feelers out for attempts to dominate a forum in order to induce false estimations of an issue, but that one struck me as both earnest and true.

In any case, the volatility over a year of Bitcoin’s value is a strong indicator that Bitcoin does not qualify as a ‘currency,’ in my estimation. I still cannot figure the unique utility of Bitcoin, and I lean towards Erick Erickson’s view on the matter.

Convenient news about yesterday’s supposition that at least some conservative voters, this time in Nebraska, won’t put up with candidates with dubious sexual reputations:

Donald Trump failed to deliver a victory Tuesday in a Nebraska GOP primary for a gubernatorial candidate accused of groping multiple women, NBC News projects, handing the former president his first loss of this year’s election season.

University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen won the party’s nomination after a heated contest, defeating a state senator and self-funding businessman Charles Herbster, whom Trump campaigned for last week even after eight women — including a Republican state senator — accused Trump’s favored candidate of inappropriately touching or kissing them against their will. [NBC News]

Certainly, I’m speculating that it was the allegations, made plausible by volume and source, that repelled Nebraska conservative voters – or maybe the independents and Democrats flooded the primary as well, although the lack of other primary surprises makes this unlikely.

But that may be the limit at the moment. In West Virginia, the number of seats in the House was reduced by one due to the recent Census, pitting two GOP House members against each other in a primary. Who lost?

The acceleration to the right keeps increasing:

NEW: Republican candidate for Michigan Governor, Ryan Kelley, just came out against democracy: “Socialism—it starts with democracy. That’s the ticket for the left. They want to push this idea of democracy, which turns into socialism, which turns into communism in every instance.”

— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) May 8, 2022

Mr. Kelley, meet Mr. Stalin. Give ‘im a hug. Bedmates should always get a hug.

While watching a comedy skit featuring a comic with a prosthetic nose, my Arts Editor remarked:

He’s really milking that nose.

It’s just a bad visual.

Forecasting the future is a favorite past time of political professionals and pundits. One possible approach is to use the results of special elections at the state level, which occur with fair regularity as elected officials die unexpectedly, win other seats, retire due to illness, and other such life events.

Of course, using special election results can be a minefield. Turnout is commonly light and filled with ideological zealots, rather than casual citizens. The weather and even traffic conditions can skew votes, as can the quality of the candidates and their fund-raising abilities.

In the end, it’s those seats that change hands that attract my attention. Oh, there goes one now!

In this case, this is probably due to the quality of the Republican candidate, a deduction which does not necessarily exempt this special election, necessitated by the movement of the former seat holder to the Michigan State Senate, from use by the crystal ball.

First, why I suggest this is a candidate-quality result. The Republican is Robert Regan, whose advice to his daughters if they find themselves being raped went national:

... panelist Amber Harris, a Republican strategist, told the group that it is “too late” to continue challenging the results of the 2020 election, suggesting Republicans should instead move on and focus on future races, to which Regan replied: “I tell my daughters, ‘Well, if rape is inevitable, you should just lie back and enjoy it.’ ” [WaPo]

And if that seems ambiguous, this is not:

The problem of passwords has been around for a long time. Its grandparents are such things as the recognition passwords used by the military in the field for centuries, with cousins including learning to recognize the clothing common to the enemy so they can be cornered and captured.

But I digress. Passwords have been a problem for me ever since I started logging into computers: learning them, having someone break them, re-learning them, changing them, and again. Social media and multiple, multiple sites demanding them just made it harder. And, now, Big Tech thinks they’ll be solving the problem:

Apple, Google and Microsoft announced this week they will soon support an approach to authentication that avoids passwords altogether, and instead requires users to merely unlock their smartphones to sign in to websites or online services. Experts say the changes should help defeat many types of phishing attacks and ease the overall password burden on Internet users, but caution that a true passwordless future may still be years away for most websites.

The tech giants are part of an industry-led effort to replace passwords, which are easily forgotten, frequently stolen by malware and phishing schemes, or leaked and sold online in the wake of corporate data breaches.

Apple, Google and Microsoft are some of the more active contributors to a passwordless sign-in standard crafted by the FIDO (“Fast Identity Online”) Alliance and the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), groups that have been working with hundreds of tech companies over the past decade to develop a new login standard that works the same way across multiple browsers and operating systems. …

“This new approach protects against phishing and sign-in will be radically more secure when compared to passwords and legacy multi-factor technologies such as one-time passcodes sent over SMS,” the alliance wrote on May 5. [KrebsOnSecurity]

Maybe. This is the first I’ve heard of it, so I have no clue as to the technical approach. But fixes that fix everything are frequently disasters.

And, of course, you must have a smartphone to participate.

I wonder if this is an early sign of the Internet apocalypse. Between trying to solve a hard problem by requiring someone own yet more high technology, and the addictive hell hole that social media often becomes, I wonder if we’re nearing the end of the Web Age.

Probably not. There’s always a youngster ready to take the place of a bruised and bloodied oldster.

But I’ve been musing on the thought that the absolutism noted by a number of pundits, from myself to Andrew Sullivan to Erick Erickson to, well, anyone distrustful of ideological zealots, has been accentuated by the leveling of the playing field. This idea is closely allied to the much observed loss of gatekeepers, the editors and others of newspapers and magazines who acted as default censors, operating under the valid excuse of limited resources. Never perfect and sometimes with their own extreme biases, nevertheless they kept the boat of civic discourse on something approaching an even keel, and, if they didn’t, a public outcry or angry publisher could get them fired.

Today? No editors, no censors, and the cursed cry of No compromise! echoes from all political factions, because most of us haven’t the foggiest idea of what it takes to successfully govern a democracy, and most of us think some Divine creature or another is on our side. Hubris, one of the most common human flaws these days.

So I do wonder how many folks are doing what Cliff Stoll did 30 or more years ago, declaring the Internet anti-social and walking away from it. I wonder if he found a way to live with it, or went hard core. I see he contributes to a channel on YouTube, so he must have found a compromise.

But my point is that if the Internet just gets too hard, people will learn to do without it. Is this the breaking point? Or are too many people dependent on it for their income to abandon it?

Nature has an article on the dissolution of plastic – from the abstract:

Here, we use a structure-based, machine learning algorithm to engineer a robust and active PET hydrolase. Our mutant and scaffold combination (FAST-PETase: functional, active, stable and tolerant PETase) contains five mutations compared to wild-type PETase (N233K/R224Q/S121E from prediction and D186H/R280A from scaffold) and shows superior PET-hydrolytic activity relative to both wild-type and engineered alternatives¹² between 30 and 50 °C and a range of pH levels. We demonstrate that untreated, postconsumer-PET from 51 different thermoformed products can all be almost completely degraded by FAST-PETase in 1 week.

I’m not reading the actual paper, not being a PhD level chemist, but skralyx on Daily Kos remarks, hopefully knowledgeably:

If you’re concerned about the release of CO₂ by such a process, that’s justified, but there’s more to this story!

Not only can this process be used to degrade PET, but in fact to reconstitute it. Once you break the polymer down into its components, you can let bacteria in the wild reduce them to CO₂ and water. OR you can re-polymerize them, which is a nifty way of casting aside any impurities like dyes or product residue and regenerating “virgin” PET. This is a recycling program where you don’t have to worry too much about the state of the discarded plastic.

So maybe some good news here.

The title says it all:

Doomed to disappear within a couple of days, I’m sure.

This WaPo article on the supposedly pro-choice Republican Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) reminded me about some further thoughts I’ve had on the assertions of Erick Erickson, quoted in the initial post of this thread. First, Senator Collins:

Professor Richardson, who is working from a The New York Times article, to which I have no access:

Supply chain issues have also driven up prices, both because of shortages and because the ten shipping companies that dominate the global trade have jacked up prices so astronomically that U.S. importers have asked the U.S. government to intervene (this year container companies will pocket $300 billion in profits, up from $23 billion before the pandemic).

Well, that explains a helluva lot. Way too much, in fact. Profits, that is.

For famous artist™Jeff Koons, NFTs (non-fungible tokens, indicating ownership of something as recorded on a blockchain) seem to be win-win:

Liftoff! Jeff Koons has announced that he will send a group of new sculptures to the moon later this year. Works by the world’s most expensive living artist are set to reach the earth’s only natural satellite in July and will remain there in perpetuity.

They are being sent on board a lunar lander known as Nova C, developed by the private American company Intuitive Machines. The spacecraft, which will be launched at the Kennedy Space Center in Merritt Island, Florida, will touch down on Oceanus Procellarum, a region of the near side of the moon (the hemisphere facing the Earth). It takes an average spacecraft around three days to travel the 240,000 miles between the Earth and the moon.

Upon their landing, the sculptures will be permanently housed in a transparent, thermally coated cube. Further details of the works will be revealed via a dedicated website in the coming weeks, but only one Nova C lander carrying the works will be sent. With a load capacity of 100kg and measuring two-by-three meters, it is therefore unlikely that Koons’s lunar-bound works will be as large as his most famous sculptures.

Alongside this lunar expedition, Koons will also release his first group of NFTs as part of the project Jeff Koons: Moon Phases. [Kabir Jhala, The Art Newspaper]

Yep. He gets to put artwork on the Moon, which should be a PR bonanza, while still having the financial advantages of selling the artwork.

I suppose, at some point in the future, the then-current owner of the art could fly up to the moon and collect what he’s bought.

Maybe. First, Intuitive Machines has to get them there. I wonder if the NFTs are sold pre- or post- launch? And how valuable are artworks lost in a launch accident?

Little blue things, maybe a month late:

My Arts Editor’s commentary:

Kind of bleak, but a good representation of how far behind we are.

Ouch.

This CNN report on the Ukraine war has to be upsetting anyone who cares about food prices:

Russian forces are stealing farm equipment and thousands of tons of grain from Ukrainian farmers in areas they have occupied, as well as targeting food storage sites with artillery, multiple sources have told CNN.

The phenomenon has accelerated in recent weeks as Russian units have tightened their grip on parts of the rich agricultural regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, the sources said. Sowing operations in many areas have since been disrupted or abandoned.

The actions of the Russian forces may threaten the harvest this year in one of the world’s most important grain-producing countries. The volumes involved are said to be huge.

And

“They took away a new harvester, which was recently delivered to us. They took away the sowing complex, a large and expensive machine. And they overturned one of the tractors, driving around drunk. Now it’s lying in a ditch.” Tsvigun said.

As for his grain — 2,000 tons of it — Tsvigun said “most likely, they took it too. But about the harvesters, this is already a fact.”

This sort of tactic is meant to ruin and sow terror, but it also marks the Russians not as a civilized people, but bandits. Desperate bandits, too, because no matter how much they steal, it’s unlikely to add a lot to their currency reserves, their reputations, or really much else, except their own casualty count. They’re modern day Vandals, but as more parents lose sons and daughters to Putin’s War, the less support there will be for the Russian government, which is a risk in itself.

And, worse, in our highly interconnected world, a war can trigger problems half way around the globe, as AL-Monitor reports:

The Russian-Ukraine war’s impact on food and energy prices has hit Turkey’s economy especially hard, where annual consumer inflation reached a two-decade high last month.

Sibel Hurtas writes that the rising costs have exposed long-running problems in the country’s agricultural sector, including its increasing reliance on imported materials to make livestock fodder and fertilizers. (Russia and Ukraine are providers of such materials.)

Plus, Mustafa Sonmez explains why Turkey’s chronic income inequalities are exacerbated by the soaring inflation, which is set to top 100% in the fall.

There may be a backlash even for the Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia contretemps, as AL-Monitor suggests in the above article, around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, already a flashpoint as Egypt’s primary water source may be dammed by Ethiopians hungry for more power and control of the water.

Ukraine is a leading food producing country, and Russia’s decision to ruin it, even if only temporarily, could lead to higher food prices, and as food prices in this scenario function in inverse correlation to food scarcity, we may even see starvation in some sectors of the globe. In turn, NATO and allied countries will need to consider punishment for the miscreants of Moscow, and that, in turn, may increase the risk that Russia will try to use nuclear weapons.

If that happens, then we’ll discover how well their nuclear weapons, inherited from the Soviet Union to some extent, function – and whether or not the United States actually has a rumored anti-missile technology that has never been formally revealed.

Blue food:

In 2021, Jessica Gephart at the American University in Washington DC and her colleagues took a deep dive into what they call “blue food”, a catch-all category for anything edible from fresh water or the sea. That includes fish, shellfish and cephalopods, but also an aquarium of lesser-eaten creatures such as sea cucumbers, jellyfish, seaweed and microalgae. If managed carefully, they concluded, blue foods have a lot of room for sustainable growth. “There is such a thing as sustainably managed fisheries,” says John Virdin at Duke University in North Carolina. “It takes smart rules and enforcing those rules, but it can be done. And it’s not impossible to do aquaculture sustainably.” [“How four big industries are driving the exploitation of our oceans,” Graham Lawton, NewScientist (23 April 2022, paywall)]

Which Party owns that car in November?

Ever see those signs on mountain roads warning of boulders occasionally falling on the highway? Yesterday’s leak of a draft of the SCOTUS opinion aggressively overturning key decisions Roe and Casey, authored by Justice Alito, is a bit like that. The questions are the size of the boulder, and how it’ll impact the highway, or, in this case, the 2022 elections.

Professor Richardson thinks it’s a big boulder:

Democrats are outraged; so are the many Republican voters who dismissed Democratic alarms about the antiabortion justices Trump was putting on the court because they believed Republican assurances that the Supreme Court justices nominated by Republican presidents and confirmed with Republican votes would honor precedent and leave Roe v. Wade alone. Today, clips of nomination hearings circulated in which Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch, Clarence Thomas, and even Samuel Alito–—the presumed majority in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade—assured the members of the Senate Judiciary Committee that they considered Roe v. Wade and the 1992 Planned Parenthood v. Casey decision upholding Roe settled law and had no agenda to challenge them.

Those statements were made under oath by those seeking confirmation to our highest judicial body, and they now appear to have been misleading, at best. In addition, the decision itself is full of right-wing talking points and such poor history that historians have spent the day explaining the actual history of abortion in the United States. This sloppiness suggests that the decision—should it be handed down in its current state—is politically motivated. And in a Pew poll conducted in February, 84% of Americans said they believed that justices should not bring their political views into their decision making.

Suggesting that she believes this issue will be burning in the minds of independents in November.

Erick Erickson, who I already quoted here in his defense of the proposed decision, also said this:

Fifth and, for now, finally, everyone wants to know about the political implications. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, there really won’t be many. We are in May. The election is in November. The people who care passionately about this issue are already on sides. Few are actually directly impacted by it. The economy, inflation, supply chain issues, crime, wokeness, etc. will be big issues people are regularly grappling with.

[My bold] I think Erickson’s blinded by his own position, perhaps best described by his epithet for Democrats: Baby-killers. His position is absolutist, and he projects that attribute on everyone.

But many voters, particularly independents, are old-style voters: we evaluate and weigh across a spectrum of point, from competency to ideology to various issues, like abortion, death penalty, economic management, and, for the more adventurous, foreign relations. They are not generally single-issue voters, a variety of voter that I’ll generally loathe, with exceptions. They look at the whole picture.

So if he thinks the voters are already decided on the upcoming election because everyone is already set on this issue, he doesn’t understand how this works. If this were true, hell, every election would go the same way. Looking at results over the decades, they don’t – sharply, they don’t.

Steve Benen:

The common thread tying each of these messages together is obvious: Democrats are telling voters that if they’re opposed to what Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices are doing to reproductive rights, the proper response is to vote for the party that supports reproductive rights.

Democrats can seize on this from a position of relative strength because they and the American mainstream are roughly on the same page. For years, polling has been consistent on public attitudes: Most of the country wants the Roe v. Wade precedent to remain intact. In fact, a well timed Washington Post-ABC News poll was released this week that showed Americans, by a nearly two-to-one margin, want to see Roe upheld, not overturned.

What’s more, there’s reason to believe Americans don’t yet realize what’s poised to happen. The week after the justices heard oral arguments in the Dobbs case, a Politico/Morning Consult poll found that nearly two-thirds of the public “either said they didn’t know how likely the court was to overturn Roe or said the court isn’t likely to overturn the precedent.”

In my earlier response to Erickson, I noted that one part of his defense was how the Republicans “followed the rules.” But, as Benen notes, the non-political segment of Americans, which is roughly 85% on just a guess, is getting a surprise, and, worse yet, as numerous commentators have point out, the SCOTUS Republican majority looks exceedingly awful in terms of their shared morality. While Thomas is well-known for his anti-Roe v Wade sentiments, and thus suffers no degradation of reputation, Justices Barrett, Alito, Kavanaugh, and Gorsuch are all on tape affirming Roe as “settled law,” implying they would not overturn it.

They look awfully mendacious, now, and I think that’ll rebound terribly on the Republican Party.

So that leads to the question: how will each side prep for 2022?

I suspect the Republicans will try to take cover under the Democrats’ botched management of the transgender issue, they’ll try to blame inflation and shortages on Biden, and we’ll continue to see the fringe-right (Greene, Gaetz, etc) continue to agitate to the benefit of Moscow, rather than Kyiv, using a variety of imaginary reasons.

The Democrats, meanwhile, will have the January 6th Insurrection incident, the refusal of certain Republican members of Congress to testify to the investigating Committee, and the abortion issue. The chance to pass a Federal level law supposedly overriding State level laws will be dangled, in order to get out as many voters as possible.

It’ll be interesting to see what other issues are used in the upcoming election campaigns.