Professor Richardson summarizes the invasion of Russia so far:
Less than a week ago, Russian president Vladimir Putin launched an assault on Ukraine, and with his large military force, rebuilt after the military’s poor showing in its 2008 invasion of Georgia, it seemed to most observers that such an attack would be quick and deadly. He seemed unstoppable. For all that his position at home has been weakening for a while now as a slow economy and the political opposition of people like Alexei Navalny have turned people against him, his global influence seemed to be growing. That he believed an attack on Ukraine would be quick and successful was clear today when a number of Russian state media outlets published an essay, obviously written before the invasion, announcing Russia’s victory in Ukraine, saying ominously that “Putin solved the Ukrainian question forever…. Ukraine has returned to Russia.”
But Ukrainians changed the story line. While the war is still underway and deadly, and while Russia continues to escalate its attacks, no matter what happens the world will never go back to where it was a week ago. Suddenly, autocracy, rather than democracy, appears to be on the ropes.
Let’s assume Putin is finished. Whether he’s thrust out of power, or out an upper-story window, it doesn’t matter. But let’s not ask the obvious question, which is What comes next, who will take over, will it continue as a corrupt autocracy or will it become a democracy, etc etc.
Let’s ask a question important to the United States: When Putin disappears, what will be the effect on the American right wing?
There’s a number of possible results.
- No change in behavior. This suggests the right wing is an organic movement.
- The movement begins to move back towards the center. This suggests Putin was pumping money into the movement in an effort to guide it into splitting the American political scene. When the motivation goes away, so does the behavior.
- The anti-vaxx subgroup begins to fade away. Once again, Putin funds them and they quit when the money stops flowing. I consider this as a low probability result because anti-vaccination sentiment has been with us for a very long time.
- QAnon disappears. The eponymous ‘Q’ hasn’t posted for a very long time, at least by Internet standards, so that suggests the continuing movement is self-sustaining. Still, ‘self-sustaining’ could be an illusion. Anonymous members, paid by Putin to keep the lights on, are difficult to impossible to identify, so if QAnon breaks up and shrinks, Putin’s hand may be discerned.
- Others?
Of course, the problem with the approach of measuring a change in our political scene that can be connected to Putin’s demise is that China may have also been interfering. Money, after all, is money, and those who are willing to take it corruptly rarely object to using a range of sources.
But for anyone puzzling over the polarization of the American political scene, the removal of Putin from the scene may turn out to be an eye opener. I seriously doubt that fake clergy like Greg Locke will be abandoning their ego-inflating gigs just because Putin loses, but, whether there’s changes or not, Putin’s debacle will teach us something.
