I see CNN is claiming Ukraine survived the night in its war against the much stronger invader, Russia, and, if true, I think that may inspire and solidify American citizens’ backing for underdog Ukraine, who were also, incidentally, the victims of American aggression just a few years ago, leading to the first impeachment and trial of then-President Trump. Yes, the President, in the guise of his official duties, put illicit pressure on Ukrainian President Zelensky to initiate an unwarranted investigation of Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s sadly flawed son, before delivery of promised military arms and assistance would commence, and that threatened the future of Ukraine. That makes us aggressors. And, sorry dude, but your false claims of a rigged election causing this invasion don’t match up with your own culpability. President Biden, if he hasn’t already, should apologize for his predecessor’s morally inferior action.
But I digress.
It’s the affects of the invasion and how they may rebound to Russia’s detriment that I think is most interesting.
Finland and Sweden have brushed off warnings from neighboring Russia that their possible joining of NATO would trigger “serious military-political consequences” from Moscow for the two countries.
A statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry Friday voiced concern about what it described as efforts by the United States and some of its allies to “drag” Finland and Sweden into NATO and warned that Moscow would be forced to take retaliatory measures if they join the alliance.
Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said Saturday that “we’ve heard this before.”
“We don’t think that it calls for a military threat,” Haavisto said in an interview with the Finnish public broadcaster YLE. “Should Finland be NATO’s external border, it rather means that Russia would certainly take that into account in its own defense planning. I don’t see anything new as such” in the statement delivered by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, Haavisto said. [The Philadelphia Inquirer]
Yeah, solidification of opposition. Russia may dare to invade a weaker neighbor under a pretext. It’s only a single front. But what if Sweden were to issue a statement like this?
We were messing around with Google maps today and estimate a column of Swedish tanks could reach Moscow in less than a week.
(Does Sweden have tanks?) Sure, I’m just spitballing here. And what if documentaries concerning the Swedish Empire (1561-1721) were to appear on Swedish broadcast television? For us Americans, “Swedish Empire” sounds almost like a contradiction, seeing that Sweden was neutral during World War II, but at one time the Swedes were the rampaging maniacs of the North and actually had designs on the throne of the Holy Roman Emperor, although they didn’t work out.
We may be understandably ignorant, but not the Russians. They’ll understand the threat.
And then the Finlanders could remark, ever so casually, on the inability of Russian radar to pick up on American B-2 bombers, and then add that the Ghost of Kyiv is sucking down so much Russian Air Force resources that a small flight of B-2s could probably make Moscow without visual detection. Which is utter nonsense, but, given Russian penchants for disinformation, a return volley of same is not out of the question.
We can be sure that Putin won’t pull in his horns, but we all know he’s a lost cause. The real goal here is to collapse support for Putin among both the common citizenry, and the oligarchs, as I’ve mentioned before, who have far more to lose.
One of the excuses Putin has used for this war, an excuse that might actually be sincere, is that he doesn’t want NATO neighbors. If Finland and Sweden join NATO, he’ll have an unintended consequence for Finland, and Sweden is right next door to Finland, which is built like a spite house – long and narrow.
How the countries of the world react to the survival of Ukraine may determine the war’s course more than we imagine.
