The outrage over Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) rejection of the Build Back Better legislation, President Biden’s (D) signature infrastructure proposal, has caused palpable outrage in the political world, not only for the rejection, but for his style of rejection.
After Democrats worked with Manchin in good faith for several months, he didn’t just kneecap them yesterday, he did so without class. Instead of picking up the phone and letting Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer know about his decision, Manchin waited until yesterday morning — less than an hour before his on-air appearance — to have an aide let party leaders know.
He then announced his opposition to the bill on Fox News — a network closely affiliated with Republican politics — after reportedly turning down a phone call from the White House. [Maddowblog]
In politics, style can be as important as substance – and nearly as meaningful. That Manchin rejected the latest may sound final, but it doesn’t have to be. It can simply be a message, to everyone, that the proposal isn’t acceptable. That message goes to the negotiating partner, to his constituents, to the Republicans, and it can be highly nuanced, depending on the politician. Manchin is not inexperienced, and one of his icons is reportedly the late Senator Byrd (D-WV), a well known veteran of the political scene, who had a reputation for bringing Federal money to West Virginia.
But the style of delivery of the message, on Fox News, is problematic. The right wing news outlet, well known for its support of President Trump and his lies, is an appalling outlet to use. Preferring it over a phone call from the White House, if true, is … insulting.
But does Manchin understand the fallout that may come of this maneuver? It was long understood before 2020 that Manchin had the potential to hold the balance of power in the Senate, so it’s no surprise that he’s the one with the hammer, but if he’s showing his true colors at this moment, he may find his influence in the Senate sharply limited after this incident. After all, who on the Democratic side of the aisle wants to work with a Democratic colleague who led the President on and on – and then announced his rejection of a signature chunk of legislation via a news outlet of problematic legitimacy? If Manchin has pet projects – and Senators often do – he may find himself stymied in his own ambitions.
A vengeful Senator might even find some manner, unknown to me, for putting a metaphorical knife into Manchin’s back.
Erick Erickson, as I’ve noticed is his habit of late, wants to read the total destruction of the Democrats into this incident:
The problem is people like Joe Manchin do not live in perpetual 2020 outrage. He lives in West Virginia and Build Back Better is not popular there. The Democrats tried to construct a package that could be passed by fifty senators and a tie breaking vote from the most unpopular Vice President in decades. They simple assumed a congressional majority meant they could do as they pleased, but congress is made up of individuals and individuals have individual agendas. The Democrats have gotten so used to mob politics, they forgot individuals and their agendas matter in Congress.
It was all terrible politics. One man did not stop the Biden agenda. Fifty-one individual senators did. The Democrats believed their press, believed in the righteousness of their cause, and believed they could ram through a social revolution without ever having to entertain the opinions of fifty senators with an “R” next to their names.
This was never going to work out well for them. That they staked all of Biden’s presidency to it was and is political malpractice. The Democrats have gotten really bad at politics. I can only conclude it is because they truly have forgotten they’re playing politics and really think they are trying to save a nation, as their press fans say. That may sound high minded. But a party the voters actually mostly rejected in 2020 can’t be the one to save the nation. And also, the nation doesn’t think it needs saving. It thinks it needs cheaper gas, cheaper groceries, and a return to normalcy.
While the popularity of the legislation in West Virginia is debatable – I’ve seen numbers as high as 60% in favor and as low as 38%, but nothing particularly recent – Erickson’s completely confused about who stopped the legislation. It was one Party plus one Senator. The words of Senator McConnell, wherein any victory for Democrats must be denied, regardless of the cost, seals the deal.
Manchin wanted a “clean” bill. That is, a bill that included a smaller number of program but funded them permanently. The irony is that this is literally what every single liberal analyst wanted too. Lefties and centrists all agreed that this would be best, since permanent programs can be designed better and are much harder for Republicans to cancel down the line.
And yet that was apparently never on the table. Why? Because analysts may have loved the idea but politicians hated it. It would have meant killing all but two or three programs, and it was impossible to get agreement within the Democratic caucus about which ones to keep. Everyone had their own pet program.
So there you have it. If we had done it Manchin’s way, we would have kept his vote and we probably would have gotten a better bill out of it. I wonder why this was so impossible?
Because getting everyone back on board takes time and resources. Something was hacked together that got approval from most Senators and House members – you don’t throw away that effort because of one Senator.
Except maybe they should have.
Politico reports a counter-offer from Manchin:
Joe Manchin has some advice for fellow Democrats: rebuild Build Back Better and you might still get my vote.
One day after sinking President Joe Biden’s signature social and climate spending legislation, Manchin (D-W.Va.) laid out a path forward that could take months and still fail. He wants the legislation to go through Senate committees and focus on rolling back the 2017 Trump tax cuts. He also wants Democrats to stop trying to force him into compliance.
“I knew what they could and could not do. They just never realized it, because they figure surely to God we can move one person. Surely, we can badger and beat one person up,” Manchin said on West Virginia MetroNews, his first response to the blowback he’s taken from the White House and Democrats for tanking Biden’s signature legislation.
My guess is that something will get passed in late January, or nothing will. Much later than that and Senators will be tied up in the politics and schedules of re-election campaigns, and while any given Senator running for re-election is unlikely to be unseated, in view of the advantage of incumbency, they do have to make the effort or risk an upset.
So this legislation will simply melt away if we get into February or March. If that happens, Manchin’s reputation with his fellow Democrats may also swirl down the drain – thus making his influence nearly zero within his own Party.
Here’s the barely-not-zero percent wildcard possibility: Support for Build Back Better from a Republican Senator.
Suppose a Republican Senator looking at re-election chances that are trending poorly decides they need a boost. While it’s easy enough to attempt to horn in on claiming the benefits of a bill that they didn’t actually vote for, which has been documented by House Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) and others, actually voting for a bill that brings benefits to one’s state will greatly solidify those claims – not to mention solidify the reputation with voters for being sensible.
I don’t expect this to happen, as most GOP Senators are too limited to think of such a possibility, but it’s not completely outside of the realm of possibility. That is, it has one toe still in the circle, but only one.
But if that Senator bore a grudge against Senator Manchin, too ….
