You know your favorite pundit is an inferior, knee-jerk hack if, concerning the conclusion of the Afghan debacle, they fail to note the following facts:
- This intervention, war, whatever you call it, was started by President Bush (R) following the attack on and destruction of the World Trade Center, along with the attack on the Pentagon. While the top line goal of killing head plotter Osama bin Laden was not accomplished by Bush and his war, other objectives were accomplished, as pointed out by Jonathan Rauch.
- Obama tried various tactics to overwhelm the Taliban, before suggesting we would be leaving near the end of his term.
- Trump did little until the final year of his term, when, in a highly criticized move, he released several thousand Taliban prisoners in exchange for a cease-fire; he later promised that the United States would leave Afghanistan by September of 2021. Professor Richardson’s summary of events is useful. SemDem on Daily Kos, while inevitably biased, also has a useful summary.
- Acts in the past influence events in the future. Seems obvious, doesn’t it? Yet, many pundits have and will caper about as if Trump’s deal with the Taliban didn’t occur or should have been ignored. Neither is an honorable option, once the deal was struck.
In the end, Biden had to leave by September. As shocking as the fall of Kabul has been, it’s important to keep a few facts in mind:
- How many American lives have been lost in this sudden crash? None.
- How many Afghani slaughters have occurred? None reported so far.
- What has hurt the most so far? American pride at failed nation building.
That, of course, is not the end of the matter for evaluation purposes. We need to worry about future events, future facts if you will: how many slaughters will still occur? Will Taliban oppression result in offenses against humanity? What of the Afghan translators who should have been given asylum?
The near-immediate fall of Afghanistan, so far, has not been a humanitarian disaster, although it could still become such a thing. The real disaster may be for an American military caught lying to multiple civilian administrations, unable to accomplish a mission that was often ill-defined, and the follow-on hit to its pride. The fact that Afghanistan was not a center for terrorism is, I fear, going to be forgotten by a mainstream (and far-right) media that has been trained to shallow thinking and quick-draw blame.
The messaging challenge for Press Secretary Psaki is going to be immense. I wish her luck.
And for you and your pundit? Remember, it’s ok for a pundit to make major mistakes, so long as they recognize them, apologize, and self-analyze. My favorite pundit, Andrew Sullivan, initially backed the Iraq invasion; when the consequent CIA torture sessions were revealed, he reversed positions, apologized, admitted actual shame, and then self-analyzed. For that, I respect him.
If you have a pundit that knee-jerked like, say, Erick Erickson did, I hope they soon apologize, too.
