Word Of The Day

Abjure:

verb (used with object), ab·jured, ab·jur·ing.

  1. to renounce, repudiate, or retract, especially with formal solemnity; recant:
    to abjure one’s errors.
  2. to renounce or give up under oath; forswear:
    to abjure allegiance.
  3. to avoid or shun. [Dictionary.com]

I don’t believe I’ve ever used that word. Noted in “As insurrectionists turn into snitches for federal prosecutors, circle tightens around conspirators,” David Neiwert, Daily Kos:

Another indictee—Thomas Robertson, then an active officer with the Rocky Mount, Virginia, police department, who entered the Capitol with a colleague and later boasted about it to his colleagues on Facebook, claiming he had broken no laws—who had been granted pretrial release now faces a revocation of that release this week after FBI agents discovered that he has purchased an arsenal of over 30 guns and a stockpile of ammunition in the weeks after his arrest, and despite release conditions requiring him to abjure all weapons. Robertson and his colleague, Jacob Fracker, were both fired from the police force after their arrests.

Myth & Reality

Amardeo Sarma and Anna Veronika Wendland publish an article in Skeptical Inquirer (July/August 2021) on the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and the consequent Fukushima nuclear accident, but before reading on, try to remember the number of deaths resultant of the radiation of Fukushima. Tens? Hundreds? Worse?

Myths Surrounding Casualties and Their Causes

The molten fuel mass in units 1 to 3 of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant dripped in whole or in part from the damaged reactor pressure vessels onto the floor of the primary containment. There, it ate into the concrete structures and solidified. Thus most of the reactor inventory was held inside the containments, but leakage could no longer be prevented due to the earthquake and explosion damage and the late initiation of pressure relief. Controlled but unfiltered ventings also released large quantities of volatile radionuclides.

The full release of iodine-131, caesium-137, and cesium-134 is estimated at 3.7 x 1017 becquerels (Bq) of iodine equivalent, about one-tenth of the release in the Chernobyl accident. Nevertheless, like Chernobyl, Fukushima was classified at Level 7 (release >5 x 1016 Bq) on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). Unlike with Chernobyl, no one at the power plant died from radiation over-exposure. As of October 2011, a total of 388 people received radiation doses above the 20 millisieverts (mSv) permitted annually for occupationally exposed persons. Fourteen people received more than 100 mSv. To date, there is one case of fatal lung cancer that has been officially recognized as an occupational disease, but it is implausible to have resulted from the accident itself (GRS 2016).

The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) estimated that the expected number of premature deaths from cancer among nuclear workers would be so small as to be statistically insignificant. No casualties were expected among the civilian population that was evacuated in time (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 2014).

The nuclear accident itself did not cause any direct radiation-related deaths. Instead, the fatalities at and close to the nuclear power plant’s site are due to the earthquake and tsunami and the evacuation measures taken after the nuclear accident.

Of course, there are disagreements:

After the accident, a publication by Mark Z. Jacobson, a renewable energy researcher and staunch opponent of nuclear power, caused a stir. He claimed that there were about 130 (between fifteen and 1,100) cancer-related deaths and 180 (between twenty-four and 1,800) cancer-related illnesses due to Fukushima (Hoeve and Jacobson 2012). His paper is also based on the controversial LNT [linear no-threshold, a mathematical risk model that has been used since the 1920s to predict the effects of radiation] model. Even the smallest increases in radiation dose in remote regions of the world, such as the west coast of the United States, were included in the calculations.

But even those numbers pale compared to deaths from just about all other uses of technology by humans. Mark Lynas calls the publication “junk science”:

In this deeply flawed paper, he succeeds only in illustrating some of the absurdities in current radiological protection models, and that one thing we know for sure—even if those absurdities are ignored—is that the evacuation killed more people than the accident. (Lynas 2012)

Mark Lynas appears to be a journalist and environmentalist.

It’s an interesting investigation into possible hysterical overreaction to what might be characterized as a design mostly resilient to disaster, a reaction which eventually led to Germany shutting down its nuclear energy industry – contributing a great deal more CO2 and other climate warming gases to the atmosphere.

Counter Sewage

Kansas is off & running in the anti-vote race:

The League of Women Voters of Kansas and other nonprofits are suspending voter registration drives for fear of criminal prosecution under a new state law.

The groups filed a lawsuit over new election-related restrictions enacted by the Legislature this session, and a judge has yet to act on a request for a temporary injunction to block enforcement of the laws until the case is resolved. One of the provisions makes it a crime to engage in activity that “gives the appearance of being an election official.”

Without clarity from the court, the organizations argue in court filings, there is a “serious risk” that someone will mistake people who are knowledgeable about voter registration as election officials.

Jacqueline Lightcap, co-president of the League of Women Voters of Kansas, says she has asked the organization’s nine local leaders to temporarily suspend their voter education and registration efforts.  [Kansas Reflector]

Perhaps I’m just naive – yeah, we’ll go with that – but how about these folks wear T-shirts that state,

NO, I’M NOT AN ELECTION OFFICIAL.

And/or

FILE A COMPLAINT THAT I’M AN ELECTION OFFICIAL AND I’LL HAVE YOU IN CRIMINAL COURT FOR FALSELY REPORTING A CRIME.

And then run your damn event. Any whining from legislators about the event, pray for it? The reply, broadcast in news reports, should be:

I’LL HAVE YOU IN COURT FOR FALSELY ACCUSING ME OF BEING AN ELECTION OFFICIAL.

And when they scream that No, I didn’t say that you were!, the reply is a sweet smile and

THANK YOU FOR MAKING MY POINT, YOU FOURTH-RATE NUMB NUTS!

Gah. I’m feeling churlish this morning. Helluva way to start a vacation. Next comes the deep cleaning of the bathroom. Whee.

Annoying Waste

I bought a belt last night. Is this waste necessary?

My Arts Editor suggests the plastic be replaced with hemp. I was thinking the belt’s back could be imprinted with the UPC, and the store could provide a website that only needs a UPC to bring up the price. Or better yet just a picture.

Maybe I should buy a Dockers‘ product a day, taking pictures and sending them to their marketing department. When I reach the size of a small house, i notify the local newspaper, the StarTribune, to come out and do a story associating Dockers with annoying waste.

Hmmmmmmmmm.

That Painful Judgment

Max Boot has a complaint:

I spent the first 29 years of my adult life as a Republican. But the day after the 2016 election, I re-registered as an independent. A couple of years later I wrote a book that reflected on my career as a conservative and admitted errors ranging from my support for the Iraq War to my willingness to overlook the GOP’s growing nuttiness. I admitted that I too bore some responsibility for President Donald Trump’s rise.

None of that has deterred some progressives from attacking me as a war criminal who should never be allowed to publish another word again. One scold wrote “Iraq-Raping Neocons Are Suddenly Posing As Woke Progressives To Gain Support.” Another kind soul wrote “Max Boot is very sorry for backing the GOP and the Iraq invasion. Why is he being praised for this?”

As you might imagine, this experience gives me additional sympathy for political defectors — whether they are moving from right to left or left to right — because I know that, either way, it’s not easy. You are likely to be reviled by old friends who can’t understand why you left and jeered by new allies who can’t understand why were ever on the “wrong” side to begin with. Both sides are likely to question your motives.

Sin, a word I use metaphorically and with some relish as an agnostic, comes in two main categories.

There are those sins that come from self-deviancy or weakness. By this, I mean that the acts involved are taken in conscious knowledge that they violate some moral or philosophical system to which we allegedly have some allegiance. That knowledge may be delayed, given the uneven nature of the human brain, but it is clear the violation is of the basis of our behavioral suite. Examples: the bribe was too tempting, the sexual opportunity “couldn’t” be passed up. Sins of the moment for the earnest.

But sins are necessarily public business, no matter how much we’d like to conceal them. This leads to the second category of sins relevant to this discussion: Sins of philosophy.

For our purposes, philosophy provides guidelines for behavior, whether the source is rational reasoning, irrational self-interest, or commands from the Divine. Communal philosophy holds communities together by providing shared guidelines for behavior that makes the actions of a community member roughly predictable as well as anodyne to the community. Being unpredictable need not always result in universal condemnation, but the results of the behaviors had best be positive for the community.

But usually deviations from communal philosophy is often perceived as a sin, if only by those doing the perceiving. In fact, that is often the case; deviants in this category do not perceive themselves as deviating. The tolerance required of a heterogeneous community such as the United States compounds the problem, reducing public discourse to cries of sinner and deviant, with little to no recourse to actual reason.

Long time readers know that I’ve written on occasion regarding redemption, Boot’s concern. Category 1 deviations are easily enough forgiven so long as the harm is not irremediable; while the irremediable harms are considerably more difficult to forgive. Redemption is what allows our society to succeed and excel, as minor deviations do not cripple a person’s prospects for life and invite destructive responses. However, theological deviations are an exception; punishments can be existentially and irrationally severe, and, even when survived, they are often life-changing.

Category 2 deviations, on the other hand, clashes of philosophy, are fundamentally different. Whether they result from different understandings of how society succeeds, or not, or come from deliberate choices, or are a result of the aforementioned tolerance required by heterogeneous societies, or are theologically based, they are based on some of the most fundamental assumptions concerning existence, or sometimes observations for the more careful temperaments, and individuals are rarely, if ever, disposed to be rid of these foundational elements of their lives.

Redemption requires remorse and a promise to change behavior; but behavior springs from philosophy, among other sources, and when the basic philosophy doesn’t change, there’s little reason to believe claims of remorse and for redemption.

Which brings me to the current situation in the United States. There are many philosophies extant in America, but I tend to break them into 3-4 categories: the theologically insane, meaning they believe in what I call arrant nonsense, such as the End Times being upon us; the theologically sane, meaning they believe in both God and rationality; the rationalists, who believe in rationality and science, which are more or less synonyms; and the ideologists. The last category consists of folks at the extreme ends of the political spectrum who have chosen to believe in non-theological tenets concerning the nature of reality, with great rigidity and fanaticism. Various elements of the trans-gender movement might be classed in this last category; on the right, there’s more a tendency to believe in God, although it’s worth noting that fascist tendencies needn’t be accompanied by religious inclinations – except that the fascist believes they have a Divine right to leadership.

No offense to anyone.

The believers in life being a power structure may find these natterings about philosophical categories to be superfluous, but I don’t agree. A philosophy built on misapprehensions concerning the nature of reality has, in my opinion, a greater chance of terminating in disaster than does that which is based on a good understanding of reality.

This means that the Republican Party, which appears to be built on the baseless suppositions of certain religious leaders, as well as the false beliefs of the leaders concerning their opponents politically, has good reason to fear the future: its foundation is crumbling in the light of reality, but it continues to obstinately plunge ahead with its ideology even as members become doubtful and leave it.

But how it got there, which I theorize elsewhere is due to a combination of team politics and religious zealotry, is another matter.

Insofar as Boot goes, he states he’s not religious and has changed parts of his philosophy. The insights concerning his former comrades are actually invaluable; I have no problem suggesting redemption is good. The haughty poseurs who, to borrow a phrase, think their shit don’t stink, need to remember that redemption is one of finest features this nation offers, and stop the political rivalry they engage in so mindlessly.

But for others? The question has no automatic answer for the ideologically fallen, liberal or conservative. As ever, redemption requires heart-felt change and self-analysis.