The situation of the Nile River and Egypt, Sudan, and, most importantly, Ethiopia continues to deteriorate. AL-Monitor reports:
Egypt has so far played the Nile Dam dispute with Ethiopia straight by the diplomatic book, seeking a solution via mediated negotiation, working with and through trusted partners and institutions such as the United States, the World Bank and the African Union.
Egypt depends on the Nile, which originates in Ethiopia, for more than 90% of its water needs. Ethiopia’s decision to proceed with the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) this month, without an agreement on management of the downstream flow of the Nile waters, could reduce the flow of water to both Egypt and Sudan.
Eleven countries share water from the Nile Basin. The major chokepoint is the Blue Nile tributary in Ethiopia, where the GERD is being built.
The current crisis is not just about this month’s second filling of the dam, which may be less impactful than expected, because the GERD is still in development.
For Cairo and fellow Nile-dependent neighbor Khartoum [capitol of Sudan], this is a top-tier and existential national security matter. Without an agreement on the allocation of the Nile waters, Egypt and Sudan anticipate an endless cycle of uncertainty about the flow of the vital Nile waters to their countries.
[Bold mine.]
Critically:
Egyptian Ambassador to the United States Motaz Zahran wrote in April, “At stake is the future of the Nile, a lifeline for millions of Egyptians and Sudanese,” adding that “the GERD could inflict incalculable socioeconomic and environmental harm downstream in Egypt and Sudan.”
And is there a reason that Sudan and Egypt would put up with this uncertainty? Neither is notoriously pacifist countries; nor is Ethiopia.
Certain war-gaming departments at the countries in question, as well as many others, have doubtless been running simulations of the situation. Why?
Just to the east of the Nile is the town of Suez, marking the southern end of the Suez Canal. Remember the international hubbub when the Ever Given got itself stuck in the Canal earlier this year? An airstrike on the Canal by Ethiopia wouldn’t just impact Egypt, it’d impact much of the world, economically.
There may be nothing us little people can do to avert such a war, but at least we can prepare for any impact it might have on you.
Don’t be surprised if a war breaks out in this area in the next three years.
