An early study of the responses to the Covid-19 pandemic seems to indicate that a strong initial response is better than a minimal notice response:
We compared COVID-19 deaths, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and strictness of lockdown measures during the first 12 months of the pandemic for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries that aim for elimination or mitigation (figure). Although all indicators favour elimination, our analysis does not prove a causal connection between varying pandemic response strategies and the different outcome measures. COVID-19 deaths per 1 million population in OECD countries that opted for elimination (Australia, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea) have been about 25 times lower than in other OECD countries that favoured mitigation (figure). Mortality is a proxy for a country’s broader disease burden. For example, decision makers should also consider the increasing evidence of long-term morbidities after SARS-CoV-2 infection. [“SARS-CoV-2 elimination, not mitigation, creates best outcomes for health, the economy, and civil liberties,” Miquel Oliu-Barton, et al, The Lancet (Volume 397)]
In other words, trying to preserve your economy ended up damaging it more, while paying strong attention to the pandemic came out better. But there is a fly in the ointment, as NewScientist (19 June 2021) notes:
It is notable that the five elimination countries are island nations or South Korea, which has one tightly controlled land border. [Jeffrey Lazarus of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health in Spain] accepts that isolation could have something to do with their success. “It is easier to protect the borders of an island state, if you want to,” he says. But it isn’t impossible for other countries to police their borders. Denmark nearly qualified as an elimination country, says Lazarus, but struggled to control Danes living in Sweden from going back and forth over the Øresund Bridge.
The ability to police one’s borders is going to vary wildly based on location. The Rio Grande isn’t normally a big deal to cross; meanwhile, no one wants to go into the Demilitarize Zone between North and South Korea. Indeed, comparing countries is always problematic, at least in my mind. It’s gotta be hard to control for the varying circumstances.
