Mark Sumner on Daily Kos summarizes some interesting findings involving various Covid-19 vaccines and China:
In looking at the issues in South America on Tuesday, one thing was clear: Despite high levels of vaccination in countries like Chile and Uruguay, these nations are at or near record highs for new cases of COVID-19. Statistics from Our World in Data show that these examples are far from alone. Around the world, there are a number of nations that have high levels of vaccination, but continue to have new waves of COVID-19. Meanwhile, there are other nations—the United States among them—that have lower rates of vaccination, but have seen a dramatic drop in cases.
The current situation in the United States, and in other nations that have fallen well short of reaching the level of vaccination needed to restrict community spread, is far from a guarantee of future conditions. It’s still possible, even likely, that the U.S. will experience a “fourth wave” of cases in the fall as indoor activities increase and Republican vaccine hesitancy leaves many areas with a high percentage of the population unvaccinated.
But some nations are already seeing a new wave of COVID-19. Driven by the Delta and Gamma variants, health care systems in many South American nations are now taxed at record levels. That’s true in nations with vaccination rates significantly higher than in the United States, as well as those where vaccination rates are low. And the reason for this seems to be that the vaccines being used in those nations are simply not working to stop infections.
Part of that is China’s fault. Part of it is ours.
And the one implication of this that Sumner doesn’t consider is the political possibilities. The release of SinoVac is a political ploy by China, as it tries to buy influence in those countries which might be best described as non-aligned. China looks good to the recipients because it gave them access to a vaccine at low or zero price – and allowing them to keep up with the rich First world countries that hog the other vaccines.
Wonderful if it works.
But if it doesn’t? If SinoVac is indeed not performing as well as Moderna’s and its ilk, China may be facing a PR problem, having to spin what turns out to be an inferior vaccine as still being a plus for those nations that received it. If they can’t make that work, then it’s political mud on the face of the leadership of China.
That would be the ever-dour Xi Jinping.
I don’t advocate throwing money into the betting pool on when Xi Jinping suddenly retires, or is forcibly retired. Politics in China is unpredictable, with today’s saints, such as Xi, becoming tomorrow’s demons with remarkable rapidity.
But don’t be surprised if Xi loses prestige, and the thing about autocrats losing prestige is that they tend to squeeze what they have that much harder, hoping to replace lost competency with more autocracy.
It’s an act that rarely ends well.
