Stephen J. K. Walters, chief economist at the Maryland Public Policy Institute, etc, has a countering view on the Baltimore phenomenon of lowered violent crime during the pandemic. Briefly, he’s not a fan and thinks we’re seeing rank amateurism from prosecutor Marilyn Mosby:
And now Baltimore is among the national vanguard in a new trend: de-prosecution. While it was widely perceived that early in her tenure Mosby put the brakes on prosecution of many “low-level” crimes, once the pandemic began she made that policy explicit (nominally to ensure that overcrowded prisons not become Covid spreaders). She dismissed over 1,400 pending criminal cases and quashed as many warrants for possession or “attempted distribution” of controlled dangerous substances, prostitution, trespassing, public urination or defecation, minor traffic offenses, and more.
A year later, she revealed that this policy was not just a Covid palliative but an experiment with human subjects; declaring it a big success, she proclaimed that “the era of ‘tough on crime’ prosecutors is over in Baltimore.” She pointed to a 20 percent reduction in violent crime and a 35 percent decline in property crime in the first quarter of 2021 compared with the same period last year. With all the confounding variables at work during the pandemic, of course, no social scientist worth her salt would proclaim such a complex experiment complete—much less successful—with just a year’s worth of data (or a subsample thereof).
When you’ve got data you like, however, “the science” or logic can be overlooked. So Mosby claimed that a 33 percent decline in 911 calls mentioning drugs and a 50 percent decline in calls mentioning sex work during her experiment proves that “there is no public safety value in prosecuting these offenses.” To the contrary: with drug use and prostitution de facto legal in Baltimore, many residents still wasted their time calling the cops about the dealers, junkies, hookers, or johns on their block. [City Journal]
He thinks … well …
A simpler explanation is that Mosby is just not very good at her job. Pre-pandemic, violent crime surged on her watch; homicides (averaging 55 per 100,000 residents) have run one-fifth higher than in any prior administration. Conviction rates fell as soon as she took office. According to Sean Kennedy of the Maryland Public Policy Institute, in 2017 only 12 percent of murder, attempted murder, or conspiracy-to-commit-murder cases resulted in a guilty plea or verdict for the murder charge. In 2018, only 18 percent of gun-crime defendants were found guilty.
It’s not the kind of statement designed to elicit agreement and analysis from the inside, but it may be accurate. It’s worth noting, though, that Walters is a fan of the Broken Windows philosophy of policing, which raises a red flag for me. If he had considered and rejected the lead poisoning theory of crime waves, then I’d be contingently happier, but he betrays no consciousness of it – which leaves me wondering if he’s well versed in the subject, or simply doesn’t like the work of Mosby.
But Walters provides a lot of context to the crime drama in Baltimore, so it’s worth a read.
[h/t Andrew Sullivan]
