Monthly Archives: November 2020

Andrew Sullivan takes something of a victory lap, not only of the rejection of Trump’s literal madness:

The last refuge of a scoundrel.

The key fact is that Donald J Trump has been decisively defeated. He will be a one-term president. This was by no means inevitable. But in a massive turnout, where both sides mobilized unprecedented hordes of voters, and when the GOP actually made gains in the House, and did much better than expected, Trump lost. A critical mass of swing voters and moderate Republicans picked Biden over him. Our nightmare of four years — an unstable, malignant, delusional maniac at the center of our national life — is over.

Take a moment to feel that relief. Breathe. Rejoice. He’s done.

But also of “woke” ideology:

And this was also clearly and unequivocally a rejection of the woke left. The riots of the summer turned many people off. In exit polls, 88 percent of Trump voters say it was a factor in their choice. On the question of policing and criminal justice, Trump led Biden 46 — 43 percent. For the past five years, Democrats have been telling us that Trump and his supporters were white supremacists, that he was indeed the “First White President” in Ta-Nehisi Coates’ words, that all minorities were under assault by the modern day equivalent of the KKK. And yet, the GOP got the highest proportion of the minority vote since 1960! No wonder Charles Blow’s head exploded.

We may find out more as exit polling is pored over, but in the current stats, Trump measurably increased his black, Latino, gay and Asian support. 12 percent of blacks — and 18 percent of black men — backed someone whom the left has identified as a “white supremacist”, and 32 percent of Latinos voted for the man who put immigrant children in cages, giving Trump Florida and Texas. 31 percent of Asians and 28 percent of the gay, lesbian and transgender population also went for Trump. The gay vote for Trump may have doubled! We’ll see if this pans out. But it’s an astonishing rebuke of identity politics and its crude assumptions about how unique individuals vote.

I’m not sure I would conflate the riots over the dangers for black men and women from police with the woke left. Simply the selection and backing of Joe Biden by the Black community may serve to refute that suggestion.

And it would be a little dangerous to suggest that people weighed 20,000+ lies against wokeness and pulled the lever for 20,000+ lies. We need those exit polls to expose the knowledge base of the average voter, first. How many voters knew about the lies (and believed that wasn’t fake news!), and the children in the cages? How many knew if their local Democratic candidates, House and Senate, were sympathetic to woke ideology – or if their opponents had misleadingly labeled them as woke?

Hell, how many have an even ballpark definition of woke? I’m not even sure I do. Although, given its supposed connection to critical race theory, I suppose that there is a certain pleasure in a supposed rejection.

But I don’t know that I can accept Sullivan’s analysis. Our shared knowledge base isn’t. Our fellow citizens are not necessarily interested in politics – they may not go out bowling and drinking beer, like they used to, but similar activities have taken their place. People often find politics to be less than imperative.

And perhaps this lack of interest, this lack of knowledge, is one of the great liabilities of a democracy, and one of the great challenges for future champions of democracy. Although I cannot suggest that rival political systems don’t suffer the same liabilities, as history easily teaches. People as incompetent and indifferent to the rules of society as Trump reaching the pinnacle of power: they litter history like black flies on dung.

Wise selection of governance remains a conundrum.

Conservative Professor Josh Blackman doesn’t think the law is all that important when his fellow conservatives are the ones with big, fat targets on their backsides:

Prosecutorial discretion would be a wise choice here. President Biden would not need to follow the model of President Ford, who pardoned President Nixon. But a pledge from the new Attorney General not to prosecute Trump and his acolytes would help unite the country. Remember, more than 70 million people just voted for Trump. And such a pledge–issued before January 20–could remove the incentive for Trump to self-pardon, and pardon his associates. I see a large upside to this exercise of prosecutorial discretion. And, for those who crave blood, the New York Attorney General and the New York District Attorney can proceed on their own accord. [The Volokh Conspiracy]

Which is a bit of a gobsmack. What, is the law merely a convenience that might only apply to your opponents? Does discouraging the potential malefactor mean nothing to Blackman?

Does he want to go through another subpar conservative Administration because they think they’re exempt from penalty?

Sure, sure, don’t persecute, follow the procedures precisely, don’t be bitter. But if someone clearly and deliberately violated the law – say, sold top-secret military technology to the Russians – then prosecutions must proceed or we’re all lost.

This is the recommendation of the blindly partisan or the demented. There was no contradictory forethought given to it at all.

And – heaven forfend! It might demonstrate to those 70 million voters the essential corruption for which they may have been voting.

How much cossetting does Blackman intend to do?

Bonhomie:

Bonhomie means exuberance, friendliness, geniality. Bonhomie is a noun that describes a state of good humor, cheerfulness, or being good-natured. Synonyms of bonhomie that may be found in a thesaurus are agreeableness, pleasantness, congeniality. The term bonhomie carries a connotation of being gregarious and full of love for one’s fellow man, a feeling that all is right with the world. People enjoy being around someone who is filled with bonhomie. The term bonhomie is a loan word from the French. While bonhomie is taken directly from the French where it means easy-tempered, it is derived from the French word bonhomme. Bonhomme is a French compound word combining the word bon meaning good and homme meaning man. Homme is derived from the Latin word homo, which means man. Bonhomie entered the English language around the turn of the nineteenth century. [Grammarist]

Noted in “Joe Biden triumphs over Trump as voters repudiate divisive, bullying president,” Toluse Olorunnipa, Annie Linskey, and Philip Rucker, WaPo:

Clinching the nomination early offered advantages, affording Biden time to unite the Democratic Party. He rolled out back-to-back-to-back virtual endorsements by former rivals in which they would appear together on video, events that fostered a sense of Democratic bonhomie after a bruising primary. He worked with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and his supporters to develop policies, effectively muting the criticism from the left that had hounded the 2016 nominee, Hillary Clinton.

I must confess to a certain interest in the tactical war that appears^[1] to be certain between President Biden and Senator “Moscow” McConnell (R-KY) after Inauguration Day. I’ve already referenced one approach here; so here’s another, suggested by Glenn Kirschner, a US Army and Federal prosecutor with decades of experience. To summarize, he suggests that if McConnell refuses point-blank to even debate Biden’s nominees to Cabinet posts and even SCOTUS, after this is made clear by McConnell, then Biden simply says, OK, you’re approved and appointed. Let McConnell run to a Court bawling that this is against the law. Let him explain to a judge why Senator McConnell gets to walk away from his responsibilities: … shall give advice and consent … and basically rewrite the Constitution.

Would it work? I don’t know. But it’s a fascinating approach. Too bad Obama didn’t try it with his nomination of Judge Garland.

And, clearly, Kirschner has little use for Trump and his cult.

¹ I say appears because, as I write this, the Republicans and the Democrats plus their Independent allies (2) are each at 48 in the Senate. The four uncalled races are the two Georgia races, which are headed for early January run-offs, the Sullivan/Gross (Mr. Gross is an Independent but endorsed by the Democrats) contest in Alaska, which is slow to report due to geographical challenges, and, mysteriously, the Tillis/Cunningham contest in North Carolina, where it appears to me the Republicans have retained the seat for the craven & useless Tillis – yet the race remains uncalled. Evidently, CNN knows more than I do. The point should be obvious, though: if the Democrats can win three of these seats, they would control the Senate.

Having fun for Rube:

I can only hope he’s not compensating for something. And, for some reason, every time he pops up, I think, “That’s Bill Gates.”

I’m a little surprised that I haven’t reviewed Despicable Me (2010), my selection for the decompression movie that must attend the declaration, if only by the news media, of Joe Biden winning the Presidential election.

Why? Because it’s charming and nearly pitch-perfect, and I’ve seen it a number of times.

It tells the story of Grue, master-criminal, and his competition with up-and-comer Vector, each sabotaging the other. But when Grue uses some orphans in his war with Vector, he discovers they have some ideas of their own about warfare.

Each detail is imagined in lovely detail; even minor characters seem to have backstories that might be interesting, including Grue’s Minions, the little yellow guys that have invaded pop culture. It’s Grue’s interactions with the Minions that hint at what’s coming, because rather than being a cold, brutal autocrat, like, say, a James Bond bad guy, Grue’s interactions are affectionate, even concerned. And they return that affection with real loyalty.

Filled with humor, imagination, and lessons, this is a joy for viewers of any age.

Highly recommended.

Parosmia:

Parosmia is a term used to describe health conditions that distort your sense of smell. If you have parosmia, you may experience a loss of scent intensity, meaning you can’t detect the full range of the scents around you. Sometimes parosmia causes things you encounter every day to seem like they have a strong, disagreeable odor. [healthline]

Noted in “When coffee smells like gasoline: Covid isn’t just stealing senses — it may be warping them,” Allyson Chiu, WaPo:

The AP News has the tragic facts:

U.S. voters went to the polls starkly divided on how they see President Donald Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. But in places where the virus is most rampant now, Trump enjoyed enormous support.

An Associated Press analysis reveals that in 376 counties with the highest number of new cases per capita, the overwhelming majority — 93% of those counties — went for Trump, a rate above other less severely hit areas.

Most were rural counties in Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Wisconsin — the kinds of areas that often have lower rates of adherence to social distancing, mask-wearing and other public health measures, and have been a focal point for much of the latest surge in cases.

But, because it’s easy to deny this sort of reality, since most of us aren’t epidemiologists nor ER personnel, it’ll just be denied, denied, denied. Because this sort of thing doesn’t happen to good, God-fearing folks.

Family may be missed, or be severely impaired by “long-Covid,” but it won’t be connected to the disdain for expert opinion. That disdain has long been one of the central themes of the GOP, conveyed by such GOP superstars as former Speaker Ryan (R-WI).

Gah!

I like Daddy Bartholomew’s plan for dealing with Senator McConnell (R-KY), Senate Majority Leader, if he’s still in the same position come Jan 22, 2021:

So, McConnell won’t give proper consideration to Biden’s cabinet picks, eh?

At least, it seems to be a serious concern in the media, and would absolutely be in line with McConnell’s brand of evil…

Here’s an idea:

1) Put together a slate of appointments that truly represent the people he wants, and submit it to the Senate.

2) Quietly appoint people to “Acting” positions, people who would be guaranteed to drive McConnell and his ilk into apoplectic frenzies.

3) Announce that these “Acting” appointments will be replaced as soon as the Senate approves Biden’s submitted slate.

4) Begin a media blitz for the purpose of publicizing McConnell’s failure to give Biden’s choices due consideration, with a constant review of the history of presidential cabinet choices and Senate confirmations.

5) Proceed with governing the nation.

Perhaps Rep AOC (D-NY) as Acting Secretary of the Interior?

It’s almost like a game that someone could issue and the left play at home in the evenings.

It’s worth noting, given my occasional predilection for precise communication, that the language predominant in the news organizations does a disservice to the election. It characterizes, inadvertent as it may be, the votes that make up an election as living, changing, mutating thing.

They’re not.

For example, here’s WaPo:

Even some Trump supporters are battling among themselves about how hard they are fighting for the president to reverse the vote counts in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, which flipped to Joe Biden early Friday. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Tex.) tweeted in agreement with Trump’s claims that “irregularities have been flagrant” in the vote counting but opened the door slightly to a concession, suggesting that Republicans “must accept the final results” if they eventually consider it a fair review process.

The bold is mine, and is the target of my objection. Using this language contributes to the enemies of democracy agenda of discrediting elections, by making the vote seem like a responsive, collective entity that can be influenced, post facto, by the agencies involved in the contest.

This is wrong.

An election is constituted of the votes that are collected by the designated agency by one or more methods, each with possibly its own deadline (compare mailed ballots from overseas military personnel with civilians living in the area conducting the election).

Once collected, they do not legally change, but that is what the generally accepted language of flipping implies, except for the legally part. And any comparison with quantum mechanics’ collapsing probability functions is right out.

A far better comparison from which to draw language is that of a mineral field. Without proper experience and tools, to the eye a craggy field of rocks may be barren of value; to the expert, however, they note tell-tale signs, begin using their tools expertly, start exploring and, eventually, uncover all the valuable minerals.

But those minerals were always there.

As, similarly, the votes were there. Pennsylvania didn’t flip. All that happened is that our exploration of the cast votes became more and more comprehensive, and as the counting transitioned from Trump leaning areas to Biden leaning areas, our knowledge became better and better.

But there were no perturbations to that ‘field of votes.’

National media needs to work out better communications so that they don’t mislead citizens into thinking that voting results are being stolen. It’s simply destructive to the polity to do so. And that’s where this language leads.

In case you haven’t followed the Senate races in depth, both of the Georgia seats were up for grabs, one a special election, and Georgia election rules require a 50% threshold be met on Election Day, or a runoff occurs in early January.

The Lincoln Project isn’t finished cookie-monstering the President. Here’s their opening shot.

We’re staying in the fight: to defeat Trumpism we must also defeat David Perdue.

Let’s elect Jon Ossoff. pic.twitter.com/p7IAPaCaZY

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) November 6, 2020

It’s a real shaming of Senator Perdue, because it’s all true and he can’t retort to it. All he can hope is that the GOP’s toxic team politics will carry him across the line, and, at the moment, it hasn’t. Will it in January? Or will the toll of the pandemic, The Lincoln Project, and Jon Ossoff’s attack ads finish him off?

This little guy showed up in our front yard this morning.

Too bad the zoom on our smartphones isn’t so good.

Media organizations are now projecting Joe Biden has finally won the Presidency, his third try for the ultimate political plum. I don’t mean to demean him; I believe him when he says he ran to begin the long, hard process of uniting the country.

So what comes next? There are at least two paths. The first one everyone knows.

The first path is Trump lights up the sky with lawsuits. But will this work? He’s already been working the legal system, but outside of one trivial victory, he’s suffered continual failure. Although I haven’t been tracking the details of these suits, at least one, involving the Texas GOP, was rebuffed by a far-right Federal judge, after the all-Republican Texas Supreme Court also bounced it. This reminds me of this 2018 lawsuit brought following the November election, in which the Republican loser for a House seat claimed the election was invalid because ranked choice voting was used, and a Trump-appointed Federal judge disagreed.

My point? That a Federal judiciary packed by Trump is still no guarantee that Trump will win. This isn’t the private sector, where loyalty can be bought or blackmailed. Sure, we’ll find Trumpy Trumpist Trumpian cultists among the many judges he nominated and Senator McConnell (R-KY) rubber-stamped, but remember that Trump didn’t personally select them in many cases. Some will be qualified judges who put the law above personal preference.

Add in to the mix the third-rate legal team employed by President Trump. Rudy Giuliani might have been a legal genius in his prime, but now he’s a decayed wreck of what he used to be, reduced to constructing fake scandals, and even failing at that. Jay Sekulow? His background is unsuited to this work, and his victory in the impeachment trial had little to do with actual legal ability, and everything to do with Republican Senators unwilling to condemn the toxic political culture which had placed them in positions of preeminence and wealth. Most of my reading suggests this is not a team of distinguished legal theorists.

And, finally, the SCOTUS conservatives, who may end up being presented with these lawsuits, must be conscious that this will be a test for them. If they accept and find for the President, after all the other judges refuse to do so, in multiple suits, they’ll reveal themselves as nothing more than partisan hacks.

Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett. Third-raters. That’s what they risk, being known as craven loyalists, not respecting the will of the people. Indeed, every news media outlet, if presented with the opportunity of at least some conservative Justices whining that these suits should be heard, if they arrive as Trump appealing yet another loss, should TRUMPET that whining, identifying them, implicitly, as nothing more than partisan hacks.

So much for their legacy.

But I said I saw two paths, and here’s what happens: the conservatives begin to realize that tearing the nation to pieces is not to their advantage. Literally, if this nation goes to pieces, then there goes the free markets that enrich them, there goes their healthcare, there goes civil peace – who wants riots literally in front of their houses?

So here’s leading Fox News Trumpian Laura Ingraham (look at the second video, not the first):

Laura Ingraham prepares her audience for the likely possibility that the President will lose the election pic.twitter.com/tG50EIHj60

— Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) November 7, 2020

Yeah, a lot of that sounds like utter nonsense. But keep in mind: she’s implicitly speaking to an audience of one: President Trump. No, he looked like shit at the town hall with Savannah Guthrie. His record is worse than undistinguished – he’ll be considered a bottom five President by historians. He’s a leading example of why being a businessman isn’t a qualification for any elective office.

But she knows: he’s a man-child that must have his ego soothed in order to properly instruct him.

So, we may see Trump finally give up and attempt to accept the loss with good grace. It’ll be clumsily done, with many asides alluding to cheating and that sort of crap, insulting the election workers who put their honor, their health, and even their lives on the line in order to implement this basic part of American democracy. But he may do that.

And then, in order to avoid American justice, he’ll flee to another country.

Now that it’s become apparent that, not only did President Trump not sweep to victory in the 2020 President Election, but that he’s on the brink of failure (CNN has just called the race for Biden, in company of many other news organizations), there’ll be an instructive period of conspiracy theory retrofitting. Professor Richardson sums up the problem for QAnon:

Addressing the right-wing media’s construction of a false narrative for its supporters seems crucial to restoring sanity to the country’s politics. How that might play out is unclear, in part because Trump’s extremism seems to be driving a wedge into the right-wing ecosystem. Limbaugh and Jones are following Trump, but QAnon, which promised that Trump and the military were in control and that Trump would ride to victory, is suddenly adrift. Believers thought he would bring “The Storm,” which would destroy the pedophile-cannibals in the Democratic Party. But now, Trump is losing and “Q” went silent after the election until tonight, when it simply told followers to stay strong.

This won’t destroy QAnon, of course. I feel quite sure that, somewhere deep in a Russian cyberwarfare bunker, American reactions to the apparent Biden victory are being analyzed and proper reactions by the QAnon account are being planned. The goal will be to make it appear that QAnon is unsurprised and has even predicted this turn of events. Or that the promised Trump lawsuits will turn enough states to deliver to him the victory. QAnon, unlike religious cults, doesn’t have as much access to credible (to the adherents) magical thinking as do out ‘n out religious cults, which are more dependent on the charisma of the leader.

This is not to say that the entire QAnon cult will be unfazed; perhaps 5% will leave, finally shocked to their senses by the failure of yet another prophecy. But the cult satisfies some deep need of the cultists, and, because QAnon is far different from most cults in that the leader never reveals him or herself, it’ll be exceedingly unlikely that they’ll be caught out in some supreme form of treachery which would break the cult – such as sexual malfeasance, which has brought down many a cult leader. Look for QAnon to endure, if not prosper. And possibly turn a little more violent.

But QAnon will evaporate. Younger generations will look at them in disbelief, and only a very, very few – insufficient for replacement purposes – will join up. We’ll just have to put up with their silliness, much like that of the Flat-Earthers.

I’ve never had any respect for this particular Minnesota GOP chairperson, so I can’t say I’m losing respect for Jennifer Carnahan:

Minnesota GOP Chairperson Jennifer Carnahan told party activists on Thursday night that she would help amplify claims of ballot fraud made by President Donald Trump and national Republican leaders, even though they are baseless assertions disputed by election officials of both parties.

Carnahan said that earlier Thursday, Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel asked her and other GOP officials around the country to recruit elected Republicans to parrot the false claims of fraud.

“I’m going to be making calls tomorrow to all of our leaders asking them to help us be a voice,” Carnahan said during the call Thursday with local Minnesota GOP party officials and activists. [Minnesota Reformer]

This source, new to me, has recordings, so it’s not just bullshit. I predict there will be much braying into the wind, which will achieve nothing and be about nothing illegal. Just protests that their leader failed.

The leading lickspittle of the United States Senate, Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC). See the second video.

"Everything should be on the table" — Lindsey Graham won't rule out that Republican legislatures should invalidate the election results and (presumably) award their electoral votes to Trump pic.twitter.com/ykNdFCicZW

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 6, 2020

Yep, he endorses throwing out the ballots and letting the legislature decide. He accepts Hannity’s claim that mass illegalities are occurring – because, of course, the GOP has no lawyers with which to file suits – without objection, and goes from there to endorsing his hero, President Trump.

Good lord, the lizard people really have a good grip on this guy’s brain.

And my apologies if I slathered the sarcasm on a little thickly.

Courtesy Right Wing Watch:

Presidential spiritual adviser Paula White is currently leading an impassioned prayer service in an effort to secure Trump's reelection. pic.twitter.com/hCSRh84d6g

— Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) November 5, 2020

She’s quite the con man, isn’t she? She takes her audience out of the rational zone by pounding on their ears in order to deactivate any thinking, a well known practice, and invites them into group emotional response that suggests they are the Chosen, and, well, it actually makes me a little nauseous just thinking about it. And there’s a lot of people far better qualified to analyze the deceptive, manipulative qualities of her presentation, so if you want more operational analysis, I suggest you seek them out.

But I’m not here to poke fun at her – she’s actually a consummate professional, from what I can see, in the hallowed profession of grifter – or at her audience, or to pity the latter, or even to predict her comeuppance if Trump does lose the election, as appears to be happening this afternoon. In the magical realm of evangelical Christianity, she’ll blame it on Satan, whip the crowd into a frenzy, and suck some more cash out of them in the name of defeating Joe Biden’s – or his supposed puppet-masters’ – agenda.

No, my question is this – how do you rescue her congregation? When I said magical realm, I wasn’t joking. Religion & divinity, by its very nature, breaks the laws of nature and of logic; that’s how you identify a divinity. That magical realm, where ordinary common sense and logic are ignored in favor of whatever it takes to keep the emotional self happy, makes it very difficult to come up with effective arguments for the dissuasion of followers from their path.

Only when something like a plague impacts the followers will doubts be raised, or when another power-hungry cleric begins efforts to poach members.

So, OK, Biden may have won. That doesn’t have much impact on an evangelical movement bent on following its magical thinking that tells them that they’re OK just as they are, rather than invest in the hard work of rationality and self-improvement. Will we simply have to wait for the evangelical demographics to thin the ranks? Younger generations, by and large, are reportedly repelled by the White Evangelical antics of late.

Or is there some way to pry them lose from the spiritual cocaine that Paula White and her colleagues offer?

Max Boot is deflated by the election results:

That Trump did so well in the election after doing so badly as president is mind-boggling and disturbing. So too is the fact that Republicans seem to have paid little price for allowing him to ride roughshod over the Constitution, lock kids in cages and spread the poison of nativism and racism. Embattled Republican senators such as Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), John Cornyn (Tex.) and Steve Daines (Mont.) seem to have been rewarded rather than punished for their sickening sycophancy toward Trump. After having spent the past four years as Trump’s enforcer and enabler, Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) will remain in office and probably remain majority leader, with the ability to frustrate any agenda that a President Biden would try to enact.

The conclusion is simple if disheartening: Demagoguery and dishonesty work. Trump ran what may be the sleaziest presidential campaign ever — denying the reality of covid-19 while spreading it with his rallies; lying about Biden’s agenda, acuity and ethics; spewing personal abuse and vitriol — and yet he produced a better result than most pollsters and pundits had expected. His dishonesty increased as the election drew near — yet just as in 2016, he won late-deciding voters. [WaPo]

Boot may largely be correct, but I have to wonder how many of those voters are Trumpists, and how many of those voters were, perhaps reluctantly, obeying the GOP dictate: thou shall vote for the Party nominees, no matter how terrible.

Regular readers know that I loathe and despise team politics, as a rule, as destructive to the fabric of the Republic. That rule permits more corrupt and incompetent nominees into the ranks of the elect than just about any other rule of politics of which I can think. A little adherence to the Party religious tenets (anti-abortion, absolutist gun rights, anti-regulation, anti-taxes), a little tap dance, and who gives a shit about the would-be candidate’s character, experience, or competency? For the faithful, adherence to the quasi-religious-tenets immunizes the candidate from incompetency and corruption.

We’ve now experienced the results of that rule, so beneficial for the would-be autocrat.

I’m not really disputing Boot’s right to despondency; the moral failures of those who voted for Trump deserve to be treated with deep concern, especially given the pack of grifters who have personally supported and benefited from Trump for the last four years. But I am saying that the operational nature of the GOP deserves a great deal more inspection than it currently gets, particularly by those who’ll eventually seek to replace the GOP with a responsible conservative party.

For those readers that remember my remarks on the Mississippi electoral system, it looks like a referendum change has passed:

Mississippi voted 78-22 for Measure 2, which repeals a provision of the state’s Jim Crow-era constitution that deliberately penalizes Black voters and the Democrats they support in elections for statewide office. The new law requires candidates for posts like governor or attorney general to take a majority of the vote in the general election in order to win outright; if no one hits this threshold, a runoff would take place between the top-two vote-getters. [The Daily Kos]

That sounds a helluva lot more fair than the old one. And, yes, I was wrong – the citizenry did manage to make the change, overwhelmingly. Yay for them! Shame on me for doubting them!

Rapporteur:

A rapporteur is a person who is appointed by an organization to report on the proceedings of its meetings. The term is a French-derived word.

For example, Dick Marty was appointed rapporteur by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe to investigate extraordinary rendition by the CIA. [Wikipedia]

The example seems vaguely at odds with the definition.

Noted in “The Progeny Of A Fecund Racket,” Paul Fidalgo, The Morning Heresy:

Ahmed Shaheed, the UN’s Special Rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief, called upon world governments to “repeal all laws that undermine the exercise of the human rights to freedom of religion or belief,” warning about “trajectories of violence and even atrocity crimes.”

But Troll only because Elephant already has a primary meaning in this context.

Here’s what’s bothering me, starting with Steve Benen on the left:

It’s not yet clear why so many polls painted a misleading picture this election season. The industry leaders will no doubt spend the next several months scrutinizing the problem from every possible direction, just as they did after a similar miss in 2016, and try to make adjustments ahead of the next cycle.

But there’s no denying the fact that as Election Day 2020 comes and goes, pollsters confront the most significant credibility problem the industry has ever had. For the foreseeable future, every time a new poll is released, a significant percentage of the political world will pause and say, “Yeah, but….”

And Erick Erickson (email) on the right:

Lastly, there are some really good pollsters out there. Trafalgar, who I have been deeply skeptical of, is coming off way better than a lot of mainstream media pollsters. Ann Selzer in Iowa continues to outperform everyone. But yes, increasingly it is clear the polling industry is not going to survive. Also, I think the traditional media is probably going to die off too. It is clear that the American press last lost touch with those they supposedly report on.

We are in the realignment I expected would happen, but it is happening faster than I expected and the media and polling industry, so inside a secular progressive bubble, probably won’t hold up well even as the country comes out on the other side just fine.

And what does neither acknowledge? Voting machine subversion. I don’t know why Benen doesn’t bring it up, but, for Erickson, it would ruin his story of how the world works, so he ignores it.

But, as an engineer, I look at this and I ask What are all the ways we can explain a situation where professional pollsters, many with decades of experience, could be this wrong?

There are many interesting explanations. Maybe there were undetected technical problems with their approach to polling, such as not surveying certain groups adequately. Maybe their sample sizes were too small.

Perhaps, as was reported in the media, enough Trump supporters simply lied when they were called. This would fit neatly into the cult of the Father of Lies, and, as an aside, if you run into someone who is boasting about that, do not do business with them as a matter of self-preservation. Quite frankly, you can’t trust them to honor their word. If you’re feeling adventurous, tell that to their face. Remind them that honesty is a core American value. Maybe take a large person with you when you do that.

Maybe there’s other explanations besides subversion and Erickson’s potentially self-serving remark, but let’s skip those because I can’t think of them, and let me get back to the point.

When it comes to subversion, all I have are circumstantial observations, and no solid legally valid evidence. So? Many investigations that end in legal action begin with circumstantial evidence, compiled by investigators with investigative legal powers. That makes it worth talking about this. Let’s list them:

1. The polls turned out to be off, in the direction of the Republicans.
2. Most jurisdictions use voting machines of one make or another.
3. Both hardware and software are compromisable, either through malicious external entities or corrupt internal design. To the latter point, I mean both hardware and software backdoors, which can be impossible to detect through simple examination. The former point has more meat here. Or you can look at the work of Dr. Beth Clarkson, who was denied the chance to verify deliberate cheating in the 2016 primaries in Kansas.
4. Most or all voting machine manufacturers are owned by Republicans, last I looked. Has this changed? This is more difficult to determine than one might think, because the age of the voting machines in use are the determining factor, not the current owner. I don’t have access to that data.
5. Most or all voting machines are legally protected from examination of their internals. Sheer madness. And, in at least one isolated case of examination, the design was described as “… this voting system is far below even the most minimal security standards applicable in other contexts.”
6. And the USPS, responsible for delivery of mailed ballots, is run by a Republican, recently appointed to the job, whose business acumen resulted in degradation of service. What happened there? Why, Federal Judge Emmet Sullivan has ordered USPS to conduct sweeps to find the location of ballots recorded as received by USPS, but not delivered – and USPS refused. According to WaPo, 300,000 ballots are involved. I sincerely hope someone ends up in the hoosegow for this one.

Right, there’s nothing legally actionable in there, excepting perhaps #6, which is really not relevant to my thesis – I mention it only for completeness. But, besides #6, they all point in the same direction, don’t they? Subversion of the voting machines is certainly congruent with the situation. Nothing proven – but all very, very interesting.

There are three conclusions to draw here:

1. SCOTUS should grant an exception to proprietary protections for any machine involved in the voting process. This won’t happen, of course, because the conservatives control SCOTUS, and the sanctity of the free-market and its productions will not be violated, at least not by conservatives. The universal utility of the free market is a conservative religious tenet on the order of the divinity of Christ. But it is, in my opinion, a major mistake that we use private machines to conduct a critical piece of political public business.
2. A detailed analysis of the areas of the country in which polling was egregiously off, cross-referenced with the make & model of the voting machines used in those areas, should be performed. It’s quite possible that only one manufacturer is cheating, and this would be clarify who needs to be examined – and possibly sued.
3. Stop using voting machines. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Just stop it.

Corrupt people are adders of corruption. Corrupt computers are multipliers of corruption.

Which do you want?

From Jacob Lupfer:

Trump’s coterie of “faith advisers” is mostly made up of hucksters, charlatans, publicity hogs and grifters. They are a peripatetic parody of themselves, and not one member of the Trumpist clergy offers a religious message I would take seriously for a moment. They sold their birthright for a mess of pottage and ought to take the gospel of Jesus Christ out of their mouths until they repent of the damage they’ve done to his name. [Religion News Service]

Which will never happen. They defined success as wealth and influence, and they got it. Only their congregations are the losers, and most of them are getting something out of the deal, or otherwise they wouldn’t stick around.

But those followers’ support of President Trump marks them as manifestly failing any test of morality.

Matan Shelomi is out having fun:

On March 18, 2020, the American Journal of Biomedical Science & Research published my paper claiming that eating a bat-like Pokémon sparked the spread of COVID-19. This paper, “Cyllage City COVID-19 outbreak linked to Zubat consumption,” blames a fictional creature for an outbreak in a fictional city, cites fictional references (including one from author Bruce Wayne in Gotham Forensics Quarterly on using bats to fight crime), and is cowritten by fictional authors such as Pokémon’s Nurse Joy and House, MD. Nonetheless, four days after submission, editor Catherine Nichols was “cheerful to inform” me via email that it had “received positive review comments” and was accepted for publication.

It’s not the only fake paper on Pokémon I’ve had published or accepted for publication, covering creatures from Pikachu to Porygon. Some would argue that editors cannot recognize Pokémon names, but lines in the text such as “a journal publishing this paper does not practice peer review and must therefore be predatory” or “this invited article is in a predatory journal that likely does not practice peer review” would have tipped off anyone who bothered to read the articles. These papers did not slip in under the radar; they were welcomed in blindly. [TheScientist]

How do they make money? By billing the authors for publishing their papers, for one thing. If they’re smart, they won’t pay. But I wonder if they pay those who cite their paper. You’d think no one would do that, yet …

To make matters worse, my Pokémon-inspired paper on the novel coronavirus has already been cited. A physicist based in Tunisia published “The COVID-19 outbreak’s multiple effects,” which claimed that COVID-19 was human-made and is treatable with “provincial herbs,” in another predatory journal, The International Journal of Engineering Research and Technology. He not only cited my article, but also cited one of my made-up references, “Signs and symptoms of Pokérus infection,” as the paper that first identified SARS-CoV-2. When I asked the author how this happened, he failed to see any problem with citing a paper he never read while writing a paper outside his field, and was unaware of the difference between open access and predatory journals. The difference—editing and peer review—is critical: when it comes to public health, fake journals are a real danger.

Of course, if the person doing the citing thinks they can turn their little scam into a profitable venture, then the fee for citing – if it exists – is merely a one-time fee for buying credibility.

I wish I could say this is all delusional, but seeing industries such as homeopathy and acupuncture fleecing their customers of their wealth year after year after year, I am not surprised.

Wolves and sheep. That’s our nature. Which are you?

He just wanted to lick them.

What started as a peaceful morning of kayaking turned into a close call for two friends at Avila Beach.
Video shows the pair appearing to almost be swallowed by a humpback whale.https://t.co/dJZulNZedN pic.twitter.com/JEyZibxjxi

— FOX26 News (@KMPHFOX26) November 3, 2020