Long time readers may – or may not – remember that I’ve mentioned, briefly, the possibility that humanity and the Universe is actually a computer simulation. Well, Discover published an article on this subject back in August, in which a couple of scientists tried to put together a Drake Equation[1] equivalent to estimate the probability that we are, in fact, a simulation:
Bibeau-Delisle and Brassard [of the University of Montreal in Canada] begin with a fundamental estimate of the computing power available to create a simulation. They say, for example, that a kilogram of matter, fully exploited for computation, could perform 10^50 operations per second. …
So an interesting question is this: of all the sentient beings in existence, what fraction are likely to be simulations? To derive the answer, Bibeau-Delisle and Brassard start with the total number of real sentient beings NRe, multiply that by the fraction with access to the necessary computing power fCiv; multiply this by the fraction of that power that is devoted to simulating consciousness fDed (because these beings are likely to be using their computer for other purposes, too); and then multiply this by the number of brains they could simulate Rcal.
The problem I have is the initial estimate. If we are a simulation, why should the estimate of the power of a human brain have any relation to the fundamental physics of the base reality? Or are they being extremely precise with the word simulation, using it to mean an attempt to actually simulate their reality, rather than a singular creation of sentient beings (us), possibly unrelated to those running the computer program?
Even if this is true, there remains little reason to think there’s a reasonably close relation, as that would certainly be a “tuneable parameter,” permitting exploration of how its variations effects the simulation at large.
So I have some trouble taking this exploration seriously. Apparently, neither do they:
However, the overlords have a way to foil this. All they need to do is to rewire their simulation to make it look as if we are able to hide information, even though they are aware of it all the time. “If the simulators are particularly angry at our attempted escape, they could also send us to a simulated hell, in which case we would at least have the confirmation we were truly living inside a simulation and our paranoia was not unjustified…,” conclude Bibeau-Delisle and Brassard, with their tongues firmly in their cheeks.
In that sense, we are the ultimate laboratory guinea pigs: forever trapped and forever fooled by the evil genius of our omnipotent masters.
Time for another game of Civilization VI.
1 The Drake Equation attempts to estimate the probability that there is sentient life, besides ourselves, in the Milky Way galaxy.
