In physics, a half-life is the time it takes half of a homogenuous group of unstable atoms to decay.. But in society? Take a guess as to how much longer the QAnon phenomenon to be, well, half way to disappearing.
Yeah, I don’t know, either. But if you guessed around maybe five more years – it first appeared in October 2017 – I think you’re way short of the mark, in light of this article by Amarnath Amarasingam and Marc-André Argentino on conspiracy theorists:
Rationalization is now seen by researchers as the most important factor in whether a group survives prophetic failure. Groups can do this in at least four ways:
- Spiritualization: the group states that what was initially thought of as a visible, real-world occurrence did happen, but it was something that took place in the spiritual realm.
- Test of Faith: the group states that the prophecy was never going to happen, but is in fact a test of faith: a way for the “divine” to weed out true believers from those unworthy.
- Human Error: the group argues that it’s not the case that the prophecy was wrong, but that followers had read the signs incorrectly.
- Blame others: the group argues that they themselves never stated that the prophecy was going to happen, but that this was how outsiders interpreted their statements.
The third strategy—reaffirmation—is also one used by several groups discussed in previous research. In this approach, the group brushes aside the failure of prophecy and reaffirms the value of the group, the benefits of membership, and doubles down on the importance of their journey on the path of truth. [Religion Dispatches]
As a big rationalizer myself – in common with most of humanity, I suspect – as well as an investor, this makes sense. Once that initial substantial investment is made, whether it’s a financial matter or a belief system, it’s hard, so hard to walk away. From social prestige within the group to the simple belief that you are privy to secret knowledge, QAnon has several features that attract and hold believers.
And will so continue, frantically rationalizing, no matter how many QAnon promises and prophecies fail. It’s much like the charismatic sect leader who proclaims the failure of his prophecy means his followers have prayed away disaster. It’s ridiculous, but nearly all of his, or her, sect members will buy it with hardly a blink. The alternative, of course, is to think themselves fools.
Based on this reading and experience with hard core believers of other conspiracy theories – and I include religious sects in that list for analytical reasons – I will guess QAnon will hang on for at least twenty years.
And possibly as many as fifty years.
For the next five years, they will be a potent force. We will soon have a QAnon believer in Congress, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple more are elected in 2022. After five years of lunacy, incompetency, and failed QAnon promises, though, I expect QAnon will start a long, long slide into oblivion. Hopefully, no one will be killed because of any associated ravings.
