The death of Justice Ginsburg makes me sad and troubled, not only for her family, but because now we may have some more national misery. Between the frantic emotional requirements of a President desperate to swing a comeback, and the master hypocrite, Senator McConnell (R-KY), already promising the Senate will hold hearings on any nominee sent to it, it does not promise to be a pleasant time leading up to the elections.
Or, possibly, miserable even after, even if Biden wins.
Let’s give Trump the benefit of the doubt. Let’s assume he has a whit of self-discipline. So what are the forces in play here?
There’s the open SCOTUS seat, obviously.
And there’s the election, with the Trump cult and fellow travelers who cannot convince themselves that Trump is worse than anyone who carries a Democratic Party card, the doubtful and the dubious.
How does Trump play the game?
Does he rush a nominee to the Senate in order to avoid a probable, but not guaranteed, lame duck session to put his nominee in SCOTUS?
Or does he hold off? Maybe he even hints that there’ll be no nominee if he doesn’t win the election? That should electrify his cult, and even draw some moderate Republicans back. Notice that, of course, if RBG had survived until late January, the result would have been the same – but, regardless, the game dynamic has changed.
The real question, of course, is what that might do to the independents who hold the power in this election, and who’ve been leaning – steeply, in many cases – towards Biden. Many, possibly most, are so disgusted with Trump that nothing will induce them to vote for him. This is especially true in 2016 Trump voters who’ve since rued that decision. They’ll never come back. Their disgust with Trump, and themselves, won’t permit mind-changing.
But there are several moves possible here. How about the Senate confirmation vote on Election Day? Wouldn’t that be exciting?
And there are down-ballot considerations. Senator Collins (R-ME) enraged the Democrats of Maine by voting to confirm then-nominee Kavanaugh. Could she consider a vote against a Trump nominee as a chance at redemption and reelection? She currently trails her challenger, Sara Gideon, and is doubtless feeling the pressure.
But Collins already has a record of deficient loyalty to Trump (TrumpScore: 67%); this game is harder to play for more loyal incumbents who are in trouble, such as Loeffler and Perdue of Georgia, Tillis of North Carolina, and Graham of South Carolina, where the Trump base would be enraged, or appointee McSally of Arizona, who practically licks Trump’s toes (i.e., a TrumpScore of 94%). They have less room to maneuver, but if a flawed nominee is sent their way, they may be tempted to vote against, in an effort to appear responsible and worthy of reelection.
Yes, in a nauseating way, the future weeks could be very interesting. Putin is no doubt reveling in our foolishness. May the US Army remain on guard.
