The Democrats are a little excited at their victory in South Carolina last night in what they term the last special election before November, or so I infer from an email:
Democrat Spencer Wetmore was just declared the WINNER in the last special election in the nation before November!
This is a big one, too: Spencer’s landslide, 20-point victory is a huge upset in a South Carolina district that favored Donald Trump in 2016, and it’s nothing short of a disaster for GOP Senator Lindsey Graham’s reelection chances.
20 point victory? Well, yes it is. But there’s more than one way to look at data like this, isn’t there?
Obviously, turnout for the special election was low, but, still, more Democrats than Republicans showed up. Is it important?
I can’t make up my mind. A 20 point Democratic victory in a district that voted for Trump has at least some symbolic importance. On the other hand, the losing Republican, Josh Stokes, doesn’t appear to have wrapped himself around Trump, at least so far as I can tell from his campaign site, and his Facebook page. This may be more of a signal that the base won’t turn out unless you’ve sworn your allegiance to Trump.
And Stokes no doubt knows that. Perhaps he was testing the anti-Trump Republican waters. Perhaps he truly can’t stomach Trump and doesn’t feel simpatico with the Democrats – or couldn’t win their primary.
So I see this result as more obscure than revelatory.
