Part of an occasional series examining President Trump’s progress against Candidate Trump’s promises.
The promise: Candidate Trump will protect Social Security.
Results So Far: So far, Social Security has not been changed. However, it’s not hard to see a threat on the horizon, as I documented here. Here’s the pivotal Tweet from one of Trump’s lawyers:
This is actually the biggest news of the day:
President Trump said if he is re-elected, he will look into terminating the payroll tax permanently!
— Jenna Ellis (@JennaEllisEsq) August 9, 2020
The “payroll tax” is the only revenue stream funding Social Security. Kill it, and in the face of the incredible deficits being run by the Republicans as a result of the 2017 Tax Reform law and the Covid-19 pandemic, as poorly managed as that has been, and there’s little chance of Social Security gaining a different revenue source and therefore surviving.
The Bigger Picture: It doesn’t get much bigger than this. President Trump appears to be fixated on deferring the payroll tax as part of the Covid-19 management strategy, but most experts do not think it’ll be of any help to to the unemployed, since they aren’t paying those taxes presently; I don’t see how such a reduction will spur growth, either, which is the usual reason for deferring collection of these taxes over the year. It’s our personal behavior, and progress made on cures or vaccines for Covid-19, which will determine when jobs will begin to reappear.
Republicans are well-known for their repugnance in connection to Social Security. Is this fixation a quid pro quo to the Republicans for not convicting him on the articles of impeachment earlier this year? Without further evidence, No must be assumed – but it remains an open question.
