Long time readers may remember the tensions over water between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia that I talked about four years ago. It popped back up on my radar just now as AL Monitor reports they may become dramatically worse:
Ethiopia reportedly started filling its controversial mega dam on the Nile River today though no agreement has been reached with Egypt and Sudan. The unilateral action is sure to exacerbate tensions between Ethiopia and the two countries, as both Egypt and Sudan have made their staunch opposition to the move clear. …
The latest round of negotiations between the three countries ended without an agreement yesterday.
“Although there were progresses no breakthrough deal is made,” Bekele tweeted yesterday.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River could easily become a chokehold on Egypt, since, as one might guess, the Blue Nile is a major contributor to Egypt’s only major source of fresh water, the Nile:
The confluence with the White Nile at Khartoum marks the beginning of the Nile.
Sudan reports immediate effects, although I have no idea if these numbers are trustworthy or politically motivated:
There were immediate effects of the reported filling on the Sudanese section of the Blue Nile, according to Sudan’s Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources. The ministry recorded that water levels in the river went down by 90 million cubic meters (more than 3 billion cubic feet) at a station today, according to a press release.
Ethiopia is trying to warn off Egypt from armed conflict:
An Ethiopian military leader said, ”Egyptians and the rest of the world know too well how we conduct war” before [a UN Security Council meeting on the issue].
Here’s the problem: Egypt’s the proverbial cornered rat. They have no alternative natural fresh water sources of which I am aware, they have a large and growing population, and their population density does not herald good omens for social harmony if water supplies become more limited:
Egypt is the most populous country in the entire Middle East and the second-most populous on the African continent (after Nigeria). About 95% of the country’s 100 million people (February 2020) live along the banks of the Nile and in the Nile Delta, which fans out north of Cairo; and along the Suez Canal. These regions are among the world’s most densely populated, containing an average of over 1,540 per km², as compared to 96 persons per km² for the country as a whole. [Wikipedia]
While a military tactical strike on the dam seems unlikely, it can’t be ruled out. Keep an eye out for violence brought on by the need for water.
