Last time I looked in on the Montana Senate race back in March, it was basically deadlocked. Now? Hard to say, with no polls in June, at least so far. But back in early May, maybe six weeks ago, Governor Bullock (D-MT) was showing some heavy hitting capability, putting the incumbent, Senator Daines (R-MT), under pressure:
A new poll from Montana State University shows Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock leading Republican Sen. Steve Daines by seven percentage points in Montana’s high-profile 2020 U.S. Senate contest.
The online poll, which surveyed 738 Montanans in mid-to-late April, asked registered, likely voters who they would support, if the election for Senate were held now. Just over 46 percent said they’d choose Bullock and 39 percent supported Daines.
Seven percent said they were undecided, while another 6 percent said they would vote for someone else. A Libertarian and Green Party candidate also are on the ballot.
David Parker, the chair of the political science department at MSU-Bozeman, said the poll confirms that the Bullock-Daines contest will be a close, hard-fought race – one of the most-watched Senate matchups in the nation.
“I think it’s certainly reasonable to assume that the race is probably within the margin of error and too close to call,” he told MTN News. “So, while we show a lead (for Bullock), it’s within the margin of error, so I would say, yeah, this is a competitive Senate race.”
The poll’s margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.6 percentage points. [KTVH]
I’m not sure how a plus/minus of 4.6 makes a 7 point lead within the margin of error, but there you go. It’s still a long ways to election day, but Bullock has the numbers running in his direction at the moment. In fact, a little digging turned up this:
So Bullock has progressed from down 9 points to up 7 points. If he can push this into double digits, it may be safe to assume he’ll become a US Senator come next January. Daines, meanwhile, must carry the burden of being of the Party of Trump, and while a TrumpScore of 85% shows some independence from the President, the Party of Trump does love its slavish adherence to the President – while Montanans greatly value independence. This will be a tricky cliff for Daines to negotiate.
PS: And finally, Governor Bullock has been endorsed by The Lincoln Project, a group of Republicans dedicated to be rid of Trump.
