In case you were wondering about certain States “reopening” for business before others:
The apparent rush [to reopen] in Georgia and other states has alarmed some local leaders, who fear political considerations are overriding detailed assessments of the data.
“I have great concerns about federal and some state pressure to reopen the economy without the guidance of the public-health data,” said Erin Mendenhall, the Democratic mayor of Salt Lake City. “No one doubts the gravity of this economic crisis, but the cost of human life is also grave.”
She added: “I think politics permeates crisis. And this crisis we are in is not exempt from that.” [WaPo]
I think Republican leaders sense they’re approaching a cliff in terms of political survival. It’s a bit like the buffalo jumps[1] used by American Indians to harvest buffalo, although the analogy may be a bit modest. The Republicans are discovering that their undisputed top of the line skill set when it comes to marketing and sales (Hello, Mr. Luntz![2]) does not extend to their governance skills, which includes successful communications and a competent President in the White House.
Therefore, they are set to take an enormous gamble. The entire party may find itself out on its ass come this November if all the Republican voters are still sitting unhappily at home, with money only from “socialist” legislation. However, Democrats are not in the same boat, because in the key area of governance, most Democratic office holders are superior to their Republican counterparts. Take, for example, Governor Walz (D-MN), or Governor Cuomo (D-NY), both of whom have won plaudits for the management of the crisis, from stay-at-home orders to the critical skill of communications. They are seen as active and competent, working with experts to properly modulate responses. Contrast that with Governor Kemp (R-GA) and others:
Kemp and other governors pursuing aggressive reopening plans say they are following data-driven strategies in line with White House guidelines that make a downward trajectory of new cases in a 14-day period a condition of a phased reopening.
They say that, but medical professionals and local leaders of both parties are expressing reactions ranging from discomfort to bewilderment at the rush to reopen. It’s one thing to mouth the words associated with the modern evaluation tools of the day, it’s quite another to actually use those tools – and the suspicion in many voters’ minds is that the Republicans are not engaged in sound governance.
Because they do not have the governance skills, the Republican governors are going to take an enormous chance on pushing for an early reopening. If they succeed, if the warm weather turns out to inhibit the virus as it does the flu virus, or a miracle cure is discovered, then they come out looking like bold, visionary leaders. They can even dream of credibly running for the Presidency in 2024.
And if they’re wrong? From history, specifically the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918, comes this information via Vox:
[The] study [by Howard Markel, director of the University of Michigan’s Center for the History of Medicine] demonstrates this: As the [1918 Spanish Flu] pandemic appeared to subside, St. Louis pulled back its social distancing measures. But it turned out that the pullback was premature — and flu deaths started to rise once again. This graph shows that, with the line chart tracking flu deaths over time and the black and gray bars below showing when key social distancing measures were in place:
If the double spike in deaths happens, those states in which a Republican governor reopened before recommendations from credible professionals to do so came down may see the fall & destruction of the Republican Party. And that contagion may spread to other states as well.
That’s the gamble. How does it feel to be a poker chip?
1 From Archaeology:
The buffalo jump, as it is termed, is surprisingly sophisticated. Romantic nineteenth-century paintings depict Native American men urging improbably vast buffalo herds off gigantic cliffs. In reality, buffalo jumps are often modest bluffs. They sit at the end of complex sequences of natural and constructed landmarks, called drive-line systems, that can stretch for many miles, linking buffalo watering holes to other points on the prairie with the intention of drawing the buffalo ever closer to the cliff itself. Archaeologists have long recognized that nomadic prehistoric Native Americans such as the ancestral Blackfoot (“Blackfeet” refers specifically to tribal members now living in Montana) constructed cairns whose function was to funnel buffalo herds toward cliffs.
I’m left to contemplate an enormous pile of dead and injured buffalo, and wonder at how far the analogy extends.
2 I’ve mentioned Mr. Luntz a time or two, and this is probably the best post to read, although I doubt I can recommend The Persuaders too many times as well for systematic observations on how you are the target of manipulation.
