I take no great pleasure in noting this, but for future reference, especially by bar-stool blowhards, it’s time to call Robert Epstein to account for rank amateurism. I recently noted that he predicted the max death count in the United States would not exceed 5,000, and world-wide deaths at 50,000 with less than 1 million infections total.
World wide infections are 50% over Epstein’s predictions, and that’s if we’re generous in interpreting his words. Worldwide deaths have exceeded his predictions by nearly 100% His prediction for the American death count has been exceeded by New York City alone, and based on recent counts, it’s probably off by 200%.
And we’re not near the end of this challenge. Will Epstein try to defend his effort, or will he admit he was outside of his zone of expertise?
Fortunately, based on the Administration’s actions, I think they discarded Epstein’s predictions early on, and for that we can be thankful.
So what’s left to do? To observe Epstein’s failure as an amateur, and remember it. The experts are often wrong as well – this is a tough, knotty problem, after all – but at least they know the general parameters, and will use this experience for the next time.
And remember the Administration is mostly composed of amateurs. Do we really want them running things?
