It would appear that North Korea is a little worried about COVID-19, according to an analysis by Benjamin Silberstein on 38 North:
The North Korean response to the global coronavirus outbreak has been uniquely strict by global standards. In late January, the country announced a complete suspension of foreign tourism and, soon thereafter, closed off its border almost entirely to all travel and the transport of goods. By early February, it appeared the border to China was practically shuttered, an extreme move given that China accounts for 90 percent of North Korea’s foreign trade. The government took even more drastic measures against smuggling operations along the border to China. Usually, the state turns a blind eye to much of this smuggling, and a great deal of it can occur relatively freely thanks to rife and institutionalized corruption. But in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, the state has announced harsh punishments against smugglers and stepped up monitoring operations along the border. Chinese authorities have warned residents on its side of the border that anyone who gets too close to the border risks getting shot by North Korean soldiers. Symbolically, the government even refused to take in over twenty defectors that the Chinese government was going to repatriate, in fear of the virus.
I am not aware that the North Korean medical sector has any particular strengths, and the North Korean dictator Kim Jong un must be terrified of President Trump gaining leverage over him, unless he thinks he can survive the loss of 1-2% of his population without a revolution.
And that’s certainly possible. Silberstein’s conclusion?
The North Korean government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, it lacks the tools to control and contain a virus outbreak inside the country. On the other hand, the measures meant to keep the virus out could also have disastrous consequences. A decision by the state, for example, to shut down the country’s marketplaces to stem the spread of the virus would deal a major blow to the public’s access to food. Depending on the situation in China, Beijing may provide aid to North Korea should the food situation become difficult—as it almost certainly did after last year’s poor harvest—but this cannot be taken for granted.
It’s not hard to see any cure or vaccine being withheld if it’s under the control of President Trump, while the rest of the West would probably deliver it on humanitarian grounds. The Chinese? I’m not sure.
Trying to keep it out until it burns out is the North Koreans’ best bet, probably. They are used to deprivation, and thus may not revolt.
