The first poll concerning the Montana Senate race has come in, and I’m pushing my count of Republican Senate reelection races to ten, as Public Policy Polling finds …
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that races for U.S. Senate and House in Montana are both neck and neck. In the Senate race, Governor Steve Bullock [(D)] and Senator Steve Daines [(R)]are tied 47-47, with just 6% of voters undecided. In the House race, [Democrat] Kathleen Williams and [Republican]Matt Rosendale are tied 45-45, with 9% still undecided. Bullock and Williams both lead among independent voters, with an 8 point lead for Bullock (50-42) and a 12 point lead for Williams (51-39).
It’s fascinating that a state that I considered solid Republican, with Trump defeating Clinton by more than 20 points in 2016 (while Libertarian Gary Johnson picked up 5.64% of the vote, which I interpret as The conservatives beat the liberals by more than 25 points) now appears to be flirting with the idea of going Democratic. And just to add to the fun …
Susan Good Geise, a Republican county commissioner in Montana, told KTVH she’ll be the Libertarian Party’s new candidate in Montana’s U.S. Senate race – replacing a last-minute withdrawal.
Geise’s entry could change the dynamics of the race between Sen. Steve Daines (R) and Gov. Steve Bullock (D). [Political Wire]
My guess is that, if Geise gets any support, it’ll come from the Daines camp. My reason? Daines doesn’t seem to be an especially repulsive personality, so I think the Bullock support is sincere, rather than partially composed of Republicans Who Can’t Stand Daines. Libertarians tend to ally with the Republicans, so Geise may be the honorable alternative Libertarians will choose if the Republicans continue down their path of incompetent governance and repulsive personalities. They’re less likely to choose a Democrat, since the conservatives and libertarians still love their little fantasy that the Democrats are far-left socialists.
Still, the election is more than half a year away, which is plenty of time for any candidate to trip over their shoelaces.
