Kevin Drum is trying to prognosticate:
Right now, New York City is the canary in the coal mine. Whatever happens there over the next month is most likely what will happen to the rest of the country in the month or two after that. Even if we’re successful in flattening the curve a little bit, that won’t change the eventual rate of infection or the number of deaths. It just spreads it out a bit.
I’m not so sure. When it comes to the spreading of air-borne disease, density matters. And New York City is one of the most densely populated cities in the country. I expect the densely populated city centers of the country to see a higher rate of infections, and possibly death, than the more lightly populated cities and the rural areas.
And while it’s difficult to see silver linings, at least cities like New York have excellent hospital services, even if they’re likely to be overwhelmed – or already are. Our rural areas have become sadly notorious for their decaying medical care systems. The last thing they need is for the pandemic to his them, because they’ll swiftly begin losing patients who could have been saved.
But I guess we’ll see soon enough.
