Dr. Harriet Hall, M.D., nails something I’ve often implied but never have discussed or generalized in the article “In Praise Of Uncertainty“, (Skeptical Inquirer, Volume 44, Issue 2, paywall):
I have often thought that certainty is the root of all evil, or at least the biggest problem facing humanity. A few years ago, two women came to my door. I didn’t talk to them long enough to find out which religion they were proselytizing for, but I was intrigued by their approach. They asked if I knew what the biggest problem facing the world today was, and I answered that it was certainty, people who were absolutely sure they were right about something. They agreed with me, saying, “I know just what you mean.” They didn’t realize I was talking about them.
Uncertainty is the admission that acquiring absolute and exact knowledge about the world is a difficult thing. Uncertainty, more importantly, is the acknowledgment that being strongly wrong can lead to profound disaster, whether we’re talking investing, engineering, the mind of the divine, or marriage.
It’s the boat labelled I Know God Loves Me that sets sail ill-prepared and sinks tragically. It’s the car with the bumper sticker I Know Better that hits the innocent child while the driver, secure in his superior knowledge, chitters away on the phone. It’s the pride and disdain that we all hate, and yet so many of us practice ourselves.
It’s why I’m an agnostic, not an atheist. It’s why I view all knowledge, and all of my opinions, as tentative and contingent on future knowledge, subject to verification.
It’s really at the center of this report by Steve Benen on the pride of the incoming Trump Administration cabinet and staffers:
Donald Trump’s presidential transition period was an unusually chaotic period. To be sure, the crash-course process is difficult for even the most prepared and well-organized operations, but the Republican’s team struggled more than most. As Inauguration Day approached, the incoming administration simply wasn’t prepared to govern.
That was not for lack of effort on the part of the outgoing Obama administration. The week before Trump took the oath of office, Obama’s team prepared an exercise in which the incoming team was presented with a series of hypothetical scenarios — including one in which the world faced a deadly viral outbreak — and how the U.S. federal government would have to respond. …
In theory, the session should’ve helped prepare the Trump administration for the crisis that’s currently unfolding. In practice, it didn’t quite work out that way. …
Another element to this was the Republican officials’ belief that Obama’s team had nothing of value to offer them and made little effort to learn from the outgoing officials before taking office.
While the Politico article on which Benen’s opinion piece is based is somewhat less condemnatory, it still makes clear the attitude of the incoming Trump Administration officials: high and mighty, coming off their bizarre win over Clinton, certain … oh so certain … that they knew better than Obama’s professionals.
We’ve seen how that has worked out, haven’t we? That is, if my reader hasn’t confined their reading to conservative Trump-rah-rah sites.
Hall really wraps up the entire philosophy of uncertainty with a bow and presents it as the position superior to those believe they possess the truth – or, at least, willing to sell themselves that way. And I like it.
