Today, the jumpy market whiplashed us with a nearly 10% jump after the big 10% drop of yesterday. At this point, I wouldn’t even care to guess what Monday will bring – but those who pay attention to events over the weekend may be able to hazard a guess. But I think Max Boot’s observation of how Trump will likely manage the response is spot-on:
He did not even declare a national state of emergency — something he has previously done for the southern border and cybersecurity. An emergency declaration could give Trump broader powers to mobilize the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the military, among other resources, but Politico reports that Trump is concerned it “could hamper his narrative that the coronavirus is similar to the seasonal flu and could further agitate Wall Street.” Actually, it’s Trump’s failure to take decisive action that is agitating Wall Street, with stocks in free fall the morning after his speech. Trump is heightening, not ameliorating, pandemic panic. [WaPo]
Trump’s propensity to make things look good suggests he doesn’t understand that judging work on its own merits is actually a thing. He could have rebuilt much of his shattered reputation if he had simply attacked this problem with vigor and honesty, but I suspect there was never a possibility of that happening. For Trump, it’s disaster and coverup, disaster and coverup, all through his business life and now his political life – but with a much larger audience.
And don’t forget what his immediate audience thought of him at the 2016 election:
Trump’s home town vote in 2016.
For the investor, this suggests a continued roller coaster: big losses one day, big gains another. Those will with balls of brass will try to profit, and many will succeed. I hate heartburn, so I won’t be among them.
But I will be looking for a bottom by watching Trump and public opinion. If it appears he’s given up and will let others deal with the problem, then predictability concerning the governmental response may finally become a reality.
Until then … keep your seat belts tightly fastened.
