State flag of South Carolina.
Former VP Joe Biden’s overwhelming victory in the South Carolina primary isn’t so important for its delegate count as for its signal concerning who important Democratic communities prefer in the upcoming general election. Ever wondered why Iowa and New Hampshire garner so much attention? It’s not that they’re diverse, because both are fairly homogenuous states; it’s that the homogeneity exists and can be read using the primaries and caucuses.
That’s why I tend to disregard concerns about diversity in these early states. This is all about signaling.
Through the first three contests, I read the results as the white and Latinos like the idea of a progressive going into the general election.
South Carolina, the fourth, is a bastion of the black community, and here the progressives ran into a wall, with the results showing Sanders falling just short of 20% of the primary vote (and rival progressive Warren only came up with 7.1%), while Biden won 48.4%, easily outpolling the progressives in total by nearly 2:1. Surveys seemed to indicate roughly 60% of black primary voters preferred Biden.
I have no special insights into the results, but will only note that reporting indicates the black community seems to feel that, in order to beat an old white guy, an old white guy will be required – and preferably one with experience. While I think a woman could win, the voice of the black community – a potentially significant force in the upcoming election which the Democrats will need to win – suggests I could be wrong. If Warren or Klobuchar took the nomination, despite their individual poor showings in South Carolina, would the black community stay home?
That’s a significant question, and that’s why I don’t actually give a lot of credence to Greg Fallis’ notion that primary voters should vote their hearts. Voting is an activity with an ethical dimension; if one really believes Trump is antithetical to the nation, unlike, say, McCain or Romney, who merely had political visions competing with the Democrats, then selecting the candidate you believe is best able to beat him becomes incumbent on you, ethically speaking.
As I’ve said before, I like Biden. But if he’s going to take the next step, he needs to clean up his act. No more bloopers, they’re not endearing, they are worrisome. He needs to stress his experience, and he needs to stress the Ukraine scandal as an indicator that Trump, whose admitted guilt[1] in the matter is indicative of Trump’s worries about beating Biden in the general.
And, no doubt causing the Republicans to scream foul!, politicize Covid-19 (the Wuhan coronavirus). Trump is incompetent as a governmental leader, and his mismanagement of the government responsibility for handling public health should be put front and center as to why independents should never, ever vote for Trump again. Don’t bother to appeal to Republican voters, because they’re the ones who brought vast incompetency and amateurism upon us just when we needed professionals in government – and still overwhelmingly think Trump is a great President. They have to find their own way to redemption on this matter, but they won’t listen to Biden because of his association with Obama.
But independents, slapped upside the head in the right way, will listen. They might even think.
But clean up your act, Biden. You do the right thing when you apologize and correct your behavior, but I’d like to see less of that and more forward looking policies, an acknowledgement that the Republican Party is a toxic slag heap, and a pointer to a future that doesn’t include governmental incompetence and sliding into international second-bananahood.
We need better out of you.
1 I can hear the attentive reader muttering, Wait, Trump claimed his call was “perfect!” Let me explain: It was Trump’s actions which led to the call summary being released (we have never seen the actual transcript, as I understand it, which may be even more incriminating). It was from this summary, along with the testimony of witnesses and whistleblowers, that the House decided to bring Articles of Impeachment; thus, through his release of this material, Trump admits his guilt. Still doubtful? A number of Senate Republicans, at the end of the trial, admitted that the evidence showed Trump had committed a corrupt act. However, with the distinctive and honorable exception of Senator Romney (R-UT), they felt, using convoluted and dubious reasoning, that the corruption was unworthy of conviction.
