If you haven’t read about the shift in public sentiment concerning the Impeachment Inquiry into the conduct of President, this might brighten or darken your day:
The poll found nearly 6 in 10 of those surveyed support the investigation. About half of the public wants to see Trump removed from office over the “favor” he requested during that now-infamous July 25 telephone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. [WaPo]
But how fast will things move? There are two factors that I can see:
First is the accumulation of the necessary facts and witnesses to make a convincing case for the public. Not the Senate, but the public, because public opinion will certainly influence the actions of conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans, and while the latter is as scarce as hen’s teeth, the former do exist and occupy seats in districts which have, and may still, incline towards President Trump. They still need persuasion, at least in the House, to vote for impeachment.
The second factor, and it’s contingent on the first being achieved, is the judgment of Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY). Remember their destruction of Trump over the national emergency shutdown? I think they’re once again maneuvering, this time with the intent of taking over the Senate in the next election. How? By putting Senate Republicans in a box with no exit and filling it with sea water.
The box will be the question of whether or not they should vote for the conviction of President Trump on articles of Impeachment. And the sea water?
The electorate.
I think Pelosi and Schumer will time this in such a way that the Articles of Impeachment are presented to the Senate as public opinion pulls as strongly as possible towards conviction. This will leave the Republican Senators will an unpalatable choice of
- Vote for conviction of an incompetent boob who has delivered the goods on the judiciary – at least they’d like to think so – but has otherwise damaged the country, perhaps irreparably. The Trump base, which makes up a majority of the Republican Party right now, and would remain a substantial force in the future, would take electoral vengeance by attempting to remove every single one of the ‘traitors’ from their seats, possibly even through ignominious recall elections. Of course, this could result in the election of Democratic Senators, but Trumpists do tend to be overconfident.
- Vote against conviction and lose the support of most independents. Independents are already suspicious of Republicans due to the general incompetence of Trump, the Kavanaugh confirmation, the failure of the Senate to rein Trump in, and those with longer memories will remember the failed fight to replace the ACA, which continues to grow in popularity, and the Tax Reform bill of 2017. Republicans cannot win without the support of at least one quarter, and in some cases much larger percentages of the independents.
Behind the scenes, there will be immense pressure on Trump to resign before the Senators are forced to vote and face the ire of those damn voters. Will Trump crack and do it? I don’t know. He may prefer the bravado of winning in the court of the Senate, which he may believe to be impregnable, or he may fear the indelible stain on his family reputation of having been convicted.
But Pelosi and Schumer are, or should be, the directors of this little stage play.
Stay tuned.
