The rush to blame Iran for the drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil processing plants seems to be accelerating. However, in the latest WaPo article on the incident, I couldn’t help but notice this paragraph:
A U.S. assessment found that 15 structures at Abqaiq were damaged on the west-northwest-facing sides — not the southern facades, as would be expected if the attack had come from Yemen.
Not being up on the political geography of the Middle East, I pulled up a map of the area from worldatlas:
West-northwest of Saudi Arabia includes a lot of countries, most of which would either strain to launch an attack of this sort, or would prefer not to get involved.
But then there’s technologically advanced Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political future is hanging in the balance, as Mazal Mualem notes in AL Monitor:
Some media outlets described the clash that erupted in the Knesset Sept. 11 between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Arab Joint List Chairman Ayman Odeh as “unusual.” Apparently, what made it so “unusual” was the idea that Odeh could walk right up to the prime minister while clutching his cellphone and start filming him up close in the most annoying manner. It may have lasted all of a few seconds, but it seemed a lot longer.
This heated encounter took place just as Netanyahu stepped down from the podium after delivering his “camera speech.” It was a sophisticated campaign speech, promoting the Camera Bill (for placing cameras in polling stations). A speech that summoned all the demons on the right by playing on their attitudes toward Israel’s Arab population. It also succeeded in painting Yisrael Beitenu Chairman Avigdor Liberman as collaborating with them. Netanyahu went a step too far, even by his own standards, by inciting against an entire sector of the population, but the political crisis he is facing is real, at least as far as he is concerned. What this means for him is that as of now, nothing is out of bounds.
Mualem makes the additional point concerning Netanyahu’s methods: “… that summoned all the demons on the right by playing on their attitudes …” In other words, the Prime Minister is a fear-monger who will stop at nothing to keep his position, even if that means endangering innocents and the world economy. By increasing tensions in the region, he reminds Israelis who has kept them relatively safe over the last decade, and who can continue to do so, and then he watches the votes roll in for him and his allies.
As an election ploy, it’s a bit extreme, but worse has been done in the past. And I have no evidence, I merely note how this is convenient for Prime Minister Netanyahu, and, as a close ally of the United States, he’s unlikely to suffer even a reprimand from the Americans for this activity. All he needs to worry about is the Saudi Arabians retaliating, and given their alliance with the United States, it’s doubtful that it would be military. However, it might still occur, simply through other means – but Netanyahu may think he can counter that. Or be out of office by then.
And it’s worth remembering the Iranians seem to be more plausible culprits. Seem to be. On The Resurgent, David Thornton makes another good plea to consider Iran as guilty:
President Trump does not want war with Iran. The president is essentially an isolationist who wants to bring American soldiers home rather than dispatching them to a new front. War with Iran, if it did not reach a rapid and successful conclusion, would also complicate President Trump’s reelection campaign. The problem for Trump is that the Iranians sense that he does not want war and realize that this gives them an opportunity to run amok.
If credible evidence surfaces of Iran’s complicity, then this makes a great deal of sense – and challenges Trump. But that evidence has not yet been presented.
